Author: kbillholter

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Bill’s Commentary:

“The future has arrived…”

Agricultural Commodity Prices Break Out As JPMorgan’s Food Crisis Warning Gets Louder

JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi’s warning last week that the next global food crisis could begin as early as next year has been a major wake-up call for some, adding to the growing voices on institutional desks warning that food inflation is poised to re-accelerate. 

Remaining extra watchful about agricultural prices, Bloomberg reported earlier that US corn futures moved higher after preliminary results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicated weaker-than-expected yields in parts of critical growing belts across the Midwest.

Corn yield estimates were about 3% below last year in Ohio and 14% lower in South Dakota. Soybean pod counts also declined, while severe storms and flooding in Indiana and Ohio added to concerns about further crop damage.”

Read more here…

Bill interviews with Sean at SGT Report (Also posted under Interviews)

WARNING: THE END OF THE PONZI IS AT HAND — Bill Holter

Bill’s Commentary:

“$3 trillion in off balance sheet liabilities… where does this money come from?”

WSJ Catches Up, Discovers AI’s Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities Are $3 Trillion And Growing $1.2 Trillion Per Quarter

More than two months ago, long before most Wall Street analysts had any clue that the bulk of the AI buildout commitments were diligently hidden in various off-balance sheet SPVs and other (perfectly legal) accounting gimmicks, we wrote a lengthy article detailing just that, and explaining why far beyond the $1 trillion (and rapidly rising) in annual plain vanilla capex — all of which now has to be funded through debt issuance since free cash flow across the hyperscaler universe is negative for the foreseeable future (if not forever) — which most pundits obsess over daily…

… the real risk was in the “The $1.8 Trillion Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb At The Heart Of The AI Supercycle.”

Read more here…

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Bill’s Commentary:

“Who needs math in DEI world?”

I teach calculus at Berkeley. Some of my students can’t do middle school math

In March, two California families opened college admissions decisions that should make anyone who cares about higher education stop and think.

One student — I’ll call him Elias — was admitted to a top University of California engineering program. His family was thrilled though surprised. Math had been his weakest subject in high school, but they assumed the university had seen something they hadn’t.

Another student — Nadia — watched rejection after rejection arrive from UC campuses. One turned her down even though she had earned A’s there in Calculus II and other college-level STEM courses through concurrent enrollment.

Read more here…

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Bill’s Commentary:

“Maybe its time to buy a home with some gold bars?”

Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy

@Macrobysunil

In 1970, a representative home cost roughly $19,000 — or 537 oz of Gold.

Today, it is around $608,000 — but only 140 oz of Gold.

Homes are 31x more expensive in dollars, yet roughly 74% cheaper in Gold.

That collapse in the Gold price of a home tells you something important: housing didn’t become impossibly scarce — fiat purchasing power collapsed.

That is why affordability collapsed for ordinary income earners, while Gold preserved purchasing power.

Bill’s Commentary:


Rating Action Commentary

Fitch Affirms the United States of America at ‘AA+’; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings – New York – 13 Aug 2026: Fitch Ratings has affirmed the United States of America’s Long-Term Foreign- and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘AA+’ with a Stable Outlook.

A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.

The United States’ ‘AA+’ rating is supported by its large economy, high per-capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility due to the U.S. dollar’s role as the preeminent global reserve currency. However, high fiscal deficits, a substantial interest burden, and high and rising government debt levels constrain the rating. Debt is more than double the ‘AA’ rating median. The government has not taken meaningful actions to address the large general government (GG) fiscal deficits (averaging 7% of GDP since 2022), and spending pressures will mount over the next decade due to an aging population.

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“More “winning”?”

The New Great Game, revisited

It took only a few Yemeni missiles on Saudi refineries to wake up “leadership” vectors of the Ummah; not over 100,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza by the death cult.

The Mecca Sunni NATO pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan remains a puzzle. Or dodgy sub-standard theatre – complete with photo ops and sparse intel sharing. The full text has not been released. Everything is quite vague, only stressing “collective deterrence”.

Against whom, it’s in the eyes of the beholder. All options – Eretz Israel, US-Israel, India (in case of attacking Pakistan) – might apply. The operative concept is “might”. Add to it Turkiye’s myriad NATO constraints: a viper’s nest in itself.

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“Totally “normal” in today’s dystopic world!”

Jew Made President of Catholic Biblical Association, Will Edit Antisemitic Bible Verses

The Catholic Biblical Association of America has spent nearly ninety years shaping how American Catholics read the Bible. It publishes the Catholic Biblical Quarterly, supplies scholarship to seminaries, helps train the people who train priests, and is well within the institutional machinery Rome uses to teach Scripture to Catholics. Last month, they acquired a new president. Amy-Jill Levine became the first Jewish scholar elected to lead the Catholic Biblical Association.

Levine joined the CBA in 1988, spent twelve years as book review editor of the Catholic Biblical Quarterly, served as vice president last year, became the first Jew to teach New Testament at Rome’s Pontifical Biblical Institute, and met with the previous pope, Pope Francis, multiple times. The National Catholic Reporter celebrated her election as a milestone for the first Jew to serve as editor of the Catholic Biblical Quarterly. She now sits at the head of one of the Roman Catholic Church’s most important academic institutions.

Read more here…

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Bill’s Commentary:

“Every bubble since 1982 has been popped by rising interest rates, this “Mother of all Bubbles” will be no different!”

Tailing 30Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield In 25 Years

After yesterday’s ugly 10Y auction, moments ago we got the last of the week’s refunding auctions, when the Treasury sold $25BN in 30Y paper (the same paper that has seen yield shoot up in the past week, ever since Warsh’s most recent FOMC meeting in which he left the long-end hang out to dry), and just like the 10Y auction before it, this one was also rather deplorable.

Pricing at a high yield of 5.216%, the auction tailed the When Issued 5.212% by 0.4bps…

… but more importantly, it priced at the highest yield since 2001 some 25 years ago.

The bid to cover was 2.392, down from 2.444 in July and below the recent average of 2.429. 

Read more here…

Bill’s latest interview (Also posted under Interviews)

/ kbillholter / 4 Comments

Bill’s Commentary:

“Celestial events have been turning points for markets and sentiment throughout the ages. This one appears to be major with 4 events at once. With the global financial system walking a tightrope made of fishing line, have the stars aligned for a change of epic proportions?”

Bill’s Commentary:

“Food for thought”

The Eurodollar Trap: Why the Dollar Will Spike Before It Dies.

There is a paradox at the heart of the coming crisis. The same event that will temporarily send the US dollar soaring will, within months, destroy its role as the world’s reserve currency. Understanding this sequencing is the difference between being positioned for the crisis and being destroyed by it.

This article unpacks a framework developed through extensive analysis of the Eurodollar system, the Japanese yen carry trade, the escalating conflict in the Middle East, and the structural debt trap facing the United States. The conclusion is stark: the dollar system is a highly leveraged bubble of promissory notes, and its unwind will follow a specific sequence that most investors are unprepared for.

Read more here…

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Bill’s Commentary:

“The Debt clock”

https://www.usdebtclock.org

Bill’s Commentary:

“The progression of US Treasury debt since 1929”

U.S. National Debt by Year

National debt is the outstanding financial obligations of a country. The national debt of the United States is what the federal government owes to its creditors. 

The U.S. has always carried national debt, and the majority of presidents have added to it. However, total national debt has been expanding rapidly since 2008 due to a combination of increased government spending and failure to raise taxes.1

Understanding the National Debt

The federal government borrows money to cover outstanding expenses that accumulate over time. Funds for federal spending are mainly generated by collecting taxes on personal and corporate income, payroll earnings, and borrowing. 

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“W, not even a Band-Aid, they are now down to chewing gum…”

Bill,
Heaven knows, not even the Fed wants to own the Treasury Bonds! Temporary Repos only.  Perhaps Christie's can auction them off as a nostalgic relic of bygone days?🤣
Wolfgang




https://x.com/i/status/2085364546881896595