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Bill’s Commentary:
“Simply math…”
Interest on the national debt is eating a record 19% of federal revenue — and watchdog warns it will get worse
The federal government already spends more on debt interest than on Medicaid, national defense, or all non-defense discretionary programs combined. Now, with the 30-year Treasury yield surging past 5.19% — its highest level in almost 20 years — a leading fiscal watchdog is warning that what was already a crisis could turn into something far worse.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), interest costs consumed a record 3.25% of GDP and roughly 19% of all federal revenue in fiscal year 2025. If Treasury yields remain elevated at current levels — roughly 55 basis points above Congressional Budget Office projections across the yield curve — interest costs would grow 2.5-fold, climbing from $880 billion today to $2.5 trillion by 2036. That would push debt interest’s share of federal revenue to almost 30% — nearly triple its historical average over the past half-century.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Is this because we don’t pay enough taxes, or Treasury doesn’t borrow enough?”
Rebuilding US weapons stockpile may ‘take years’ post-Iran war
The United States has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but rebuilding its depleted inventories will “take years”, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Restoring pre-war stockpiles of four critical munitions heavily used by US forces during nearly 40 days of joint fighting with Israel against Iran would take at least two years – and in some cases more than three – the Washington-based think tank said on Wednesday.
While US officials publicly project confidence in weapons stockpiles, analysts have said that dwindling munition supplies may be shaping Washington’s calculations over whether to resume the war on Iran.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Why not a $1,000 bill? The dollar has already debased (versus gold) more than 90% since 2000, which would only make a $1,000 bill the new $100 bill…?”
Bessent: Nothing ‘untoward’ about Trump appearing on $250 bill
WASHINGTON — For more than a century, federal law has stipulated that only deceased individuals may appear on U.S. currency, but that could change. As the United States prepares to celebrate its 250th anniversary, proposed legislation could amend the Federal Reserve Act and allow a portrait of President Donald J. Trump be printed on a $250 bill.
“I don’t think that there’s anything untoward about having the president of the United States, the person who was president of the United States on the 250th anniversary bill,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday during a White House press briefing.
In February 2025, Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., introduced the Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act in the House. The legislation would “amend the Federal Reserve Act to require the Secretary of the Treasury to print $250 Federal reserve notes featuring a portrait of Donald J. Trump, and for other purposes.”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Banana Republic stuff?”
Bill,
Weimar-a Lago. Has a nice ring to it.
Make no mistake, this will be the new $1 bill, at some point in time. The fact that they are placing Trump on it and calling it a Semiquincentennial (250) bill is misleading. Takes the spotlight off the real reason 'WHY' we would be issuing a $250 bill.
Let's face it, you can't buy dinner for two with a $100 bill (the largest currency available to the public). And soon a gas fillup for your car will surpass $100. Lord knows, you'll soon need a wheelbarrow to haul enough cash around (unless, of course, you make the denominations larger) for daily purchases.
-They have already disposed of the penny.
-Is the nickel next? Perhaps under the guise that we need the metal for defense?
-And the dime? Perhaps too tiny. Easily gets lost.
-And the Quarter...a quarter of what? If they eliminate the $1 bill, then the quarter will be a misnomer.
Think about it....ever go to a Dollar Store and get something for a dollar?
Perhaps the elimination of all coinage will make the almighty Dollar the new penny!
WolfgangBill’s Commentary:
“Governments have always been forced to debased due to overspending. Now, in a fiat world, there is nothing to debase as the currencies already have no substance and as such they have no intrinsic value…”
How empires die: the economic signals that come before the fall
Hold a Roman denarius from 64 CE. Feel its weight, its silver brightness. It contains approximately 93% silver — a coin Nero issued in a year the Great Fire would later make famous, though the debasement was already underway before the city burned. The fire didn’t create the fiscal problem. The fiscal problem was already looking for a coin to clip.
Now hold the same coin — to the eye, indistinguishable — from 268 CE, under Gallienus. It contains roughly 5% silver. Not 50%. Five. The government that minted it did not announce this. The soldiers paid in it could not have identified it without equipment that wouldn’t exist for seventeen centuries. Micro X-ray fluorescence analysis — the archaeometric technique that gives modern historians exact elemental composition of ancient coins — reveals what contemporaries could only sense: that the coin in their hand was worth a twentieth of what it looked like.
Two hundred and four years. One coin, two dates, an 85-point drop in silver content. Not a policy choice gone wrong. An arithmetic consequence.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Re: Gold”
It is called counterparty risk. Soon “counterparty risk” sill be a well known dirty term… Bill
Bill,
What if cryptos were not as safe or untouchable as we were led to believe?
Back to gold. The be all and end all.
It travels incognito: fungible and discreet.
Wolfgang‘We Outright Grabbed The Wallets’: Bessent Boasts $1BN In Iran State Crypto Seized To Date
Washington’s economic war on Iran and its ‘shadow’ banking network continues, as on Friday Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US has seized $1 billion in Iranian cryptocurrency assets as part of the economic component of President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury.
The billion dollar figure represents the running total seized to date, building on prior milestones in the conflict, particularly a recent major April 2026 freeze of $344 million in USDT on the Tron blockchain. By close of April, $500 million total had been seized.
And so clearly with the addition since then of some half-billion dollars more in seized digital assets, the US Treasury program has only greatly accelerated in the last several weeks.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Where does the money come from?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“A good read by Adam Hamilton”
Gold’s Backward War Trade
Gold’s reactions to material US-Iran war news in recent months have been backwards. Contrary to logic and precedent, gold has plunged when the war intensified and rallied when it cooled. Several potential explanations for this odd technical behavior suggest it will prove a short-lived anomaly. The longer Iran can keep the globally-critical Strait of Hormuz closed, the more bullish gold’s short-term outlook becomes.
Since Trump went to war with Iran at the end of February, most of gold’s biggest daily moves have been spawned by war news. For example on March 18th gold plunged 3.6% after Israeli airstrikes hit Iran’s South Pars natural-gas field, the largest in the world by far. On March 31st, gold blasted 3.7% higher on the WSJ reporting that Trump told his top advisors he was willing to end his war without the Strait being reopened.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Correct”
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Correct Wolfgang, this is the rally you never sell…until there is a credible currency somewhere on the planet.”
Bill,
Liked the Steve St Angelo article.
Just want to add this: if silver spikes because the existence of the Dollar is at risk, nobody will sell. Who will accept worthless Dollars for their silver! Best to hold until a new currency is established.
Wolfgang
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Bill’s Commentary:
”Very informative and correct by Steve St. Angelo. I would only add; be careful what you wish for, $300-500 silver will go hand in hand with a derivatives meltdown…in which case you will need your silver to be transactional in a world we cannot even imagine…yet!”
What Happens With $300-$500 Silver Prices
I am hearing a lot of talk about the silver price surging to $300-$500 by the end of the summer. It seems that many silver investors are waiting for these prices to CASH IN BIG TIME. But could they?
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“The buyer of last resort for US Treasuries is, and always has been the (non) Federal Reserve…”
Foreign Treasury Selling Is Getting Serious
We already knew that the bond market was starting to call bullshit on America’s fiscal and monetary policy. Now we know that foreign governments are dumping U.S. Treasuries, and China is leading the way…even while President Trump pals around with President Xi Jinping.
According to CNBC, foreign holdings of U.S. government debt fell sharply in March as central banks sold Treasuries to defend weakening currencies during the geopolitical and energy shock tied to the escalating Middle East conflict.
China reduced its Treasury holdings to roughly $652 billion, the lowest level since 2008. Japan, the single largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, also cut exposure aggressively. Overall foreign holdings dropped from approximately $9.49 trillion to $9.25 trillion in a single month.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Did MAGA just die?”
Bill is interviewed by Kinvestor – (Also posted under Interviews)
Bill’s Commentary:
“And they told you you were an idiot for buying $400 gold in 1986?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“The Fed has cut rates 1.25% since 2024, yet bond rates have risen 1.25%+ since then… hmmm?”
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The latest from USA Watchdog –
Bill’s Commentary:
“I believe the telling event will be the next time the Fed cuts rated… and bonds revolt in a selloff. Loss of yield curve control will be obvious and terminal!”
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Bill’s Commentary:
“On crypto…but this guy believe dollars are “money”. They are not; dollars are IOU promises from a bankrupt entity.”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Gold used as an ATM”
Behind Turkey’s Gold Sales: The Biggest Ever Plunge In Foreign Reserves
Shortly after the Iran war started, with gold unexpectedly tumbling, we showed that the reason behind gold’s paradoxical move – after all, the precious metal has traditionally been a store of value in times of geopolitical stress – was the furious liquidation of gold by emerging markets, in this case Turkey, scrambling to obtain reserve dry powder so Ankara could cover soaring costs of energy imports.
And indeed, the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.
Bill’s Commentary:
“JB, this is very good, but one thing he forgot is what’s most important; Gold is real money and as such it cannot default… Bill”
Bill, This leads directly to a US Treasury issues currency. JB –
Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy
@Macrobysunil
Gold bonds become inevitable when sovereign debt enters a confidence crisis.
Because the Treasury has a more dangerous problem:
What happens when long-term bonds stop behaving like “risk-free assets” and start trading like duration-heavy risk assets?
At that point, the issue is no longer just yield.
It is trust.
If investors no longer want 20Y or 30Y paper because inflation risk, fiscal risk and rate volatility are too high, the Treasury needs a workaround.
That workaround is gold-linked debt.
Why?
Because gold bonds solve three problems at once:
They reduce duration fear
A normal 30Y bond is just a promise of future dollars.
A gold-linked bond gives the buyer exposure to sovereign credit, but with a hard-asset anchor attached.
That makes long-term debt easier to sell when confidence in fiat duration is weakening.
They create a new collateral layer
The global system is built on Treasuries as pristine collateral.
But when long bonds become volatile and start behaving like risk assets, the collateral base gets questioned.
Gold-linked sovereign paper becomes a bridge:
Sovereign-backed, but not purely dependent on duration.
They bring reserve buyers back
This is the real motive.
Foreign reserve buyers may not want more long-duration Treasuries.
But they may still want US sovereign paper if part of the return is linked to gold instead of future dollars alone.
That is how you keep reserve buyers inside the system without forcing them to hold pure fiat duration risk.
So gold bonds are not about replacing Treasuries.
They are about making long-term debt sellable again when the bond market starts questioning the credibility of fiat duration.
The endgame is gold being used as collateral to keep the paper system alive.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Imagine that, they told us it was the most secure election ever?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Some very sad math”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $400 billion on cash, by far the highest ever. I’ve spoken of this recently and been chided by people who think either I or Warren Buffet don’t understand the risk of holding paper. I would just say, could they actually buy $400 billion worth of gold? Could the market supply it without failing? Would Berkshire not be “visited” as they surely were back in the early 2000’s regarding his 130 million ounce silver holding (which was promptly liquidated)? Each time Warren Buffet has held very high cash holdings, people called him a dinosaur that did not understand finance…and each time the market eventually cracked at least 40%. This time will be no different with the exception of credit markets, which will also be turned upside down.”
Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines
$397 billion. That’s how much “Buffett cash” now sits on Berkshire Hathaway’s balance sheet after Greg Abel’s first quarter as CEO. Warren Buffett left $373 billion behind when he stepped down at the end of 2025. Three months later, after Abel’s debut earnings report on Saturday, the hoard had grown by another $24 billion. The figure is bigger than the GDP of Hong Kong or Norway. It exceeds the market value of every American corporation except a tiny handful of mega-cap names. And it earned roughly four to five percent in Treasury bills while the S&P 500 ripped through three of its best consecutive years in modern history.
That Buffett cash hoard has also created a lot of speculation, innuendo, and assumptions, which is what I want to walk through in today’s discussion. Primarily, what that cash hoard actually represents, the popular theories explaining it, and what it really costs shareholders to hold.
Bill’s Commentary:
“I thought insider trading was illegal?”
CNBC’s Jim Cramer Left Literally Speechless by Trump’s Personal Stock Trades
CNBC anchor Jim Cramer was left literally speechless on Monday after he was informed that President Donald Trump had been trading stocks in Intel.
During a discussion on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street, Cramer remarked, “You know, the president, U.S. government got in. He could sell it and get that–”
Co-host Carl Quintanilla interrupted, “Yes, and according to the filings, the president’s been trading some Intel in the quarter, yeah.”
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The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“For real?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“There is no alternative to water…”
Georgia 30 Million Gallon Water Grab Puts Cheyenne Data Centers Under New Scrutiny
When a Georgia data center quietly drew 30 million gallons of water during a drought, no one noticed until residents’ water pressure dropped. This controversy is causing concern in Cheyenne where 70-some data centers are in various stages of discussion.
(Elijah Nouvelage Bloomberg via Getty Images)
A Georgia data center’s 30-million-gallon water use over an unspecified timeframe is sparking concern in Cheyenne, where 70-some data centers are in various stages of discussion. City officials say safeguards exist, but critics and farmers warn of long-term water, housing, and economic impacts.
When a Georgia data center quietly drew 30 million gallons of water during a drought, no one noticed until residents’ water pressure dropped, prompting questions. Only then did community officials discover that a high-tech data center had been pulling tens of millions of gallons from a strained system without paying for it first.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Does Fauci perjure himself at this hearing?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Starmer provides a “positive business environment”?”
Jamie Dimon warns JPMorgan may rethink new London office if ‘very smart’ Starmer is ousted as UK PM
JPMorgan Chase may reconsider a planned multibillion-dollar office tower in London if U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is ousted, the bank’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, said on Wednesday.
Speaking to Bloomberg in Paris, the head of America’s biggest bank by assets said that while a change in leadership would not alter JPMorgan’s fundamental strategy, it could force the lender to rethink its future in the U.K. capital.
JPMorgan announced late last year that it would build a new 3 million-square-foot tower in London’s Canary Wharf financial district to house up to 12,000 employees and serve as its U.K. headquarters. Construction is expected to take six years, during which time JPMorgan will also renovate its existing building on London’s Bank Street.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Can the Federal Reserve fix this with proper monetary policy? Or, can they print silver bars for delivery? Just askin’ for my friends…”
U.S. Wheat Crop Forecast To Hit Half-Century Low As Drought Hits Breadbasket
Chicago wheat futures surged on Tuesday, hitting two-year highs after the USDA’s latest WASDE report signaled a much tighter U.S. supply outlook than traders had anticipated.
Production stress across America’s breadbasket is now converging with a megadrought and mounting fertilizer constraints, adding upward pressure on prices at a time when global food prices are rising.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
Bill’s latest interview with Dr. Dave Janda (Also posted under Interviews)
Bill interviewed at Liberty and Finance (Also posted under Interviews)
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