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Bill’s Commentary:
“…But American regulators go into Sgt Schultz mode and see nothing?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Another view of the Great Taking”
You Don’t Own Your Stocks the Way You Think You Do
Most Americans believe that when they “buy” a stock, bond, or exchange-traded fund in a brokerage account, they become the legal owner of that security. The statement shows their name, and the shares appear as belonging to them.
But in the modern U.S. securities system, that intuition is often wrong in the way that matters most: legal title and control. What most investors hold is not a directly owned asset recorded in their name, but a contractual claim—what the law calls a “security entitlement”—against a financial intermediary.
That may sound like semantics until one asks a simple question: In a systemic financial collapse, who is first in line to retrieve those securities? In other words, the difference between owning an asset and holding a claim can determine whether investors’ assets are legally subordinated to other claims, and whether investors recover their assets at all.
Bill’s Commentary:
“To All, what you are witnessing is the beginning of the breakdown… of everything. Stocks have rolled over, interest rates are elevated, especially in Japan (carry trade), real estate is squishy and commercial real estate crushed 50%, Bitcoin assaulting $60k on the downside, silver crashed 40% in a week, and gold a 7-8% pullback from its highs.
Please understand this, no physical gold nor physical silver has been dumped anywhere in the world except metal that was bought on margin which is miniscule. This is purely an operation, those of us who have stacked for years have seen this MANY times going back to 1996. This attack is nothing new, it is only larger and more in your face. How does crashing the price of silver, create a larger supply of the metal which is used and last year had over a 400-million-ounce+ supply demand deficit? It doesn’t, it only exacerbates it!
“Leverage” (margin) is used all over the world and on everything… to the long side, with a few exceptions, namely precious metals and various other commodities. Their playbook calls for leveraged selling of naked paper contracts to suppress price. Only when the credit markets break, will we know true values to gold and silver. The leverage must and will be unwound, and in the case of gold and silver, the only way to unwind is forced buying by the naked shorts.
What we saw over the last 3 months was certainly a sight to behold, but only an appetizer with the main meal to come! Going back to the late 1970’s and 1980, the Hunt brothers ran silver to $50. The COMEX changed the rules and would only accept sell orders which crashed the price. The Hunts were margin called and bankrupted. Today is an exact 180 degrees from 1980, the vast majority of leverage short (to the downside) which means there is now built in buying coming from the shorts as their only way to close is to BUY. In essence, this is the reverse Hunt brothers!
Let them sell paper all they want, lower prices will not bring forth the desperately needed additional supply; in fact, the deficit may even widen as producers slow walk sales? Unless you must sell in the next week or two, sit tight and relax, this will all pass and you have capital outside of the system… which you soon might need?!”
Still standing watch,
Bill Holter
Bill’s Commentary:
“Paper burns, metal does not…!”
Silver’s Day of Reckoning: Shanghai Just Triggered the End of Paper
February 5, 2026, will go down in precious metals history as the day the paper façade cracked. What unfolded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange wasn’t a market correction—it was an act of financial warfare. A 17% collapse in hours, an avalanche of synthetic silver traded into oblivion, and the fingerprints of coordinated short-selling plastered all over the tape.
They called it volatility. Don’t believe it. This was the Shanghai Paper Hammer.
Over 1.3 billion ounces changed hands on the sell side—more than the entire annual global mine supply. That’s not trading; that’s a tactical strike. Price collapsed 22% in a two-hour flash—from near $90 an ounce back to the mid-$70s—but only in paper. In the physical world, nothing broke. Dealers from Shenzhen to Zurich didn’t lower prices; they ran out of silver. This isn’t speculative froth blowing off—it’s the suppression machine throwing its final tantrum before the gears seize.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“If you are going to steal, STEAL BIG! This will not even pay for his lawyers…and the problem today is that everyone steals.”
Third Georgia Democrat Lawmaker Accused Of Pandemic Fraud
A Democrat member of the Georgia House of Representatives was charged Friday with lying to obtain thousands of dollars in emergency pandemic unemployment assistance, according to federal prosecutors – the third Democrat in the Georgia House to be accused of doing so.
Dexter Sharper, 54, of Valdosta, is accused of falsely claiming he was unemployed while collecting benefits intended to those who had lost their jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Sharper allegedly received $13,825 in unemployment assistance between April 2020 and May 2021, while continuing to earn income from various sources.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“I do not speak Russian so I cannot vouch as to whether Mr. Putin says what is transcribed…but what is said here is pretty much correct.”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Another conspiracy fact?”
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Bill’s Commentary:
“We chat with the CEO of TRX.” (Also posted under Interviews)
Bill’s Commentary:
“What is the value of a contract that cannot perform?”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Thank you Wolfgang. For those who fret about Friday, here is some news on “demand”, and don’t forget, silver cannot be printed and a lower price spurs demand.”
Bill,
It's all coming out in the open. What you've been espousing for some tome now... fractured markets. Everywhere you look, articles are sounding the alarm: the vaults are empty. This is NOT the Hunt brothers scenario of 1980. The silver, this time, is not there.
Wolfgang
The chaotic sell-off exposed a massive structural fracture: the "Great Divorce" between paper contracts and physical metal.
For decades, Wall Street banks controlled silver prices by selling billions in "paper silver"— futures contracts that rarely resulted in actual delivery. But in 2026, China locked down silver exports, creating problems for companies in sectors that need the physical metal for next-gen solar and AI technologies.
Facing a sixth consecutive year of supply deficits, those industrial buyers are no longer settling for cash. Instead, they're demanding bars, triggering a physical scramble that's drained COMEX and LBMA vaults to their lowest levels in decades. As a result, the scramble has created a "backwardation" trap where silver for immediate delivery is far more valuable than a paper promise for next month's delivery.
You can see the strain in the spiking paper-to-physical ratio, which has surged to 528 million ounces of paper exposure to 113 million ounces of physical silver, according to Investing.com.
Why silver bears just flipped bullish after record plungeSilver’s 30% plunge on January 30 is one for the record books. The drop in the shiny white metal was the worst since 1980, when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market, and it followed a massive silver rally that sent prices soaring nearly 250% in the past year.
The decline wasn’t unexpected. I’ve been tracking markets for over 30 years and wrote last week that Wall Street futures trading legend Peter Brandt and pro strategist Marko Kolanovic were bearish, expecting a major move lower after silver’s parabolic blow-off top.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“JJ, because they are paper markets vs real physical markets?”
I’m wondering when this administration will ask Jamie Dimon why COMEX silver is at a $30 discount from Shanghai and who is profiting off the spread?
Why is Shanghai offering $150,000 more per Comex AG contract then we are?
Jeremiah Johnson
Bill’s Commentary:
“Is this because there is too much silver floating around?”
BREAKING: AUSTRALIA’S PERTH MINT SUSPENDS SILVER SALES
Yesterday, we alerted SilverTrade readers that a Major Government Mint was shutting down silver sales within 24 hours.
We can now disclose that the major mint halting silver sales today is The Perth Mint:
Bill’s Commentary:
“Brian,
When all is said and done, the physical markets will pop every paper circuit breaker until their paper burns to ash…” Bill
Hi Bill,
I’ve always heard that the markets have “circuit breakers” and trading halts to prevent massive moves either up or down. Did they unexpectedly fail in silver today like the cameras in Epstein’s jail cell?? Did the servers overheat and prevent the circuit breakers from working? How can any asset drop 30% in a day without any intervention. I guess I already know the answer, the banks, the government and everyone WANTED silver to drop and so the rules were probably ignored. Will any official ever be asked the question? I’m not worried, silver will probably be at all-time highs next week. I’m just so disgusted by the blatant lawlessness of it all. $1,000 silver is coming along with the dystopian world you predict.
Cheers.
Brian
Bill’s Commentary:
“No need to be traumatized, we have watched them do this since the late nineties. Their new problem is this, they can smash prices with the sale of naked contracts all they want, but they can’t print the silver to deliver on these contracts. The efforts to kill price will in reality only bring more buyers worldwide, they shot an entire foot off yesterday. Failure to deliver is right around the corner!”
SILVER’S “IMPOSSIBLE” CRASH: THE NON-BANK ROBBERY
On Friday, January 30, 2026, silver prices collapsed 26.33% in a single day—from $115.81 to $85.31 per ounce. Mathematicians call this a “10-sigma event.”
To understand how rare that is: it should happen once every billion years, not on a random weekday.
When something statistically impossible happens, it’s not magic. It’s mechanics.
The Setup: A Powder Keg
Before the crash, silver was tight. Not “a little scarce”—actually tight:
- COMEX warehouse inventories near historic lows
- Shanghai buyers paying $123 per ounce for physical metal
- Industrial demand (solar panels, electronics) still strong
- Nothing fundamentally changed to justify a price collapse
So why did paper silver crash 26% when physical silver remained scarce?
Who Benefits From a 10-Sigma Crash?
- Large Short Sellers – When you short silver, you promise to deliver actual metal. If you can’t deliver and prices keep rising, you face unlimited losses. A sudden crash forces your opponents (the longs) to sell at terrible prices, relieving your delivery pressure.
- Clearinghouses – These institutions guarantee trades. When too many members face margin calls simultaneously, the clearinghouse itself risks failure. A violent crash reduces open positions and systemic risk—even if it destroys “fair” price discovery.
- Bullion Banks – Major banks often manage mismatches between paper contracts and physical inventory. A crash gives them breathing room to rebalance without chasing higher prices.
- Strategic Buyers – Countries accumulating physical silver (like China) can now buy American panic at $85.13 while holding metal worth $123 in Shanghai.
The Nickel Precedent
This isn’t new. In March 2022, the London Metal Exchange halted nickel trading when prices spiked, then cancelled already-executed trades to protect a major Chinese short seller from default. Winners became losers overnight—not by market forces, but by decree.
What Comes Next?
Here’s the problem: The 10-sigma crash didn’t create new silver. Vaults are still tight. Chinese demand didn’t vanish. Industrial use continues.
Paper price says $85.13. Physical reality says $123. That’s a $37.87 gap that physics, not paper, will eventually resolve.
When it does, expect the opposite: a violent spike upward—possibly the “20-sigma event” needed to correct this distortion. History shows these reconciliations are never smooth. They’re explosive.
The Bottom Line
Ten-sigma events don’t happen naturally in honest markets. They happen when:
- Leverage exceeds available supply
- Powerful players face existential threats
- System preservation trumps price discovery
Someone needed this crash. The math proves it wasn’t random. The beneficiaries are visible in who survives and who doesn’t.
As Shanghai buyers continue paying $123 for physical metal, American paper traders are learning a hard lesson: when reality and derivatives collide, the exchange picks winners.
And 10-sigma events reveal exactly who they chose.
This was a robbery without a gun—executed in plain sight, recorded in every tick of market data. The vault is empty, but the receipts keep printing.
Respectfully,
Michael Quick
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Gold is the measuring stick.”
The Melt-Up Trap: Why Stocks Must Rise Until the Dollar Breaks
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is one of the clearest windows into how the average American actually feels about the economy.
Each month, the university surveys households across the country, asking straightforward questions about personal finances, job prospects, inflation, and expectations for the future. Those responses are distilled into a single number that captures the public’s economic mood. Because it has been tracked for decades, the index offers a long-running reality check on confidence at the household level.
Today, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is sitting near record lows — decisively below levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, the dot-com bust, and even the deep recessions of the early 1990s and 1980s.
Bill’s Commentary:
“True story!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“And there you have it!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Finance 101 and 100% correct”
Why the Next Recession Will Be the Catalyst for Depression
This is why a recession will catalyze a collapse of the credit-asset bubble-dependent economy down to its foundations.
Narrative control works by having a pat answer for every skepticism and every doubt. Boiled down, the dominant narrative holds that the Federal Reserve (central banking) and the central government have the tools to quickly reverse any dip in GDP, a.k.a. recession, and return the economy to expansion.
The unstated foundation of this narrative is that recessions are bad, as only permanent expansion is good. That this isn’t “free market capitalism” doesn’t bother anyone, because the whole point of central banking and government is to eliminate the rough edges of “free market capitalism” with the sandpaper of “state capitalism,” which creates or borrows as much money as needed to smooth over any spots of bother, a.k.a. recessions.
Bill’s Commentary:
“It’s always “divide and conquer”!”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“WOW!
@KingKong9888
The biggest precious metals recycler in China, Rongtong Gold, is now offering Chinese consumers a buy-back price for #Silver at the USD equivalent of $128.52 per troy ounce (VAT-exempt), well above prevailing international #Silver spot price levels.
#Gold #Silver”
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Gold is the measuring stick…”
The latest from USA Watchdog – (also posted under Interviews)
Bill’s Commentary:
“Lies, lies, and more lies!”
The latest from Erik –
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The latest from USA Watchdog –
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