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Bill’s Commentary:
“I feel I need to comment on this video:
“STOP IGNORING WHAT HOLTER IS SAYING – HIS LAST 3 PREDICTIONS WERE 100% ACCURATE…”
I have no idea who is behind ‘John AG,’ but as I have previously written regarding his other videos, I believe he is about 90% correct. Most of his errors are dates and timelines. I assure you I never ever talk about price and dates at the same time, he is mistaken on his timeline to $50, and I certainly never gave out any date(s) as to when it would occur. I have publicly said many times that silver should have pierced $50 many years ago but did not due to outright manipulation, of this we have proof. I also did not predict $120 in January, however, I did say that $100 seemed to be a logical price target when silver traded $65-70. His broad strokes on economic/financial/derivatives are very sound, and I believe to be correct. Warren Buffet calls derivatives “weapons of mass financial destruction;” it will be derivatives that crater the entire financial system. Of this, I am 100% confident because math is math and it does not lie.
While it is nice that someone put together a “puff piece” on me, I did not make the calls he claims. I am a broad picture guy and take an aerial view. I moved to Texas in the late 80’s during the oil bust and bought a foreclosed, 6-month-old 4,000 sq/ft house on water for $139,000. Back in 1997 when gold dropped below $335 it was game on for me because the cost of production was about $350. Any time you can buy something below the cost of construction/production, you will make money. I also “retired” and left the United States in Nov. 2006. Three Bear Stearns hedge funds gated investors in February 2007. This was good timing for what was to come and a very difficult decision because I had built up one of the largest physical gold, silver, and mining share positions in the US for a retail broker. I continue to accumulate physical metals for clients and have done so since returning to the US in 2011. And while we are on predictions, I should say that most of our “conspiracy theories” have turned out to be conspiracy facts -proven facts.
Lastly, trying to predict “price and time” is a fool’s game. The only thing you need to know is that when derivatives detonate, it is game over! You are either in, or out. There will be few scraps left of whatever you held in the system, and buying gold or silver will not be an option because there will be none for sale. THAT’S my prediction!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“In the end, Mother Nature will trump the lack of “rule of law” in these markets.”
End of Western Hegemony Over the Prices of Gold and Silver?
You may recall the period following the 2008 systemic crash and the attempts to implement the Dodd-Frank rules to regulate banks. At the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the regulator of commodity futures markets, a team of “incorruptibles” was assembled. The task was particularly difficult: a CFTC official earned on average barely more than $3,000, and at best $4,000, while facing extremely powerful banks that regularly manipulated the precious metals market. These banks amassed millions of dollars and didn’t hesitate to try to influence those who sought to obstruct them.
At the time, Bart Chilton, one of the five commissioners of the CFTC, made commendable efforts to expose price manipulation by these dominant banks acting in concert. He unfortunately passed away following an illness. Under his authority, twenty prosecutors were tasked with enforcing the law. As of today, none remain; the last one resigned on Monday, February 23.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“The problem is this: they cannot print oil and drop it off where needed. By the way, how much will be left in the SPR… if more is needed in another emergency?”
U.S. To Begin 86-Million-Barrel SPR Dump Next Week Via Exchange Program
The speed of the energy shock rippling out from the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East and the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz forced the 32-member IEA last week to approve a 400-million-barrel release from Strategic Petroleum Reserves to help cushion the blow to the global economy. The bulk of that supply will come from the U.S., with the Trump administration preparing a request to exchange 86 million barrels of crude oil as soon as next Wednesday.
The planned U.S. SPR release of 86 million barrels of crude, part of a broader 172 million-barrel U.S. release and part of the IEA’s “historic” 400-million-barrel emergency release action plan across 32 nations to shield economies from the worst energy shock ever to hit the world, has been altered by the end of the week.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
Bill’s Commentary:
“I guess we will know who is correct in the short term soon enough? I see Iran without an air force nor navy, that is not “winning.” Long term (maybe measured in only months?) the $ is toast. As I posted, this military operation is not going over well with the BRICS nations (and new pledges). This is incredibly dollar bearish no matter what the military outcome.”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“We told you it was all about credit, you will soon see this to be true…”
Deutsche Bank Dumps After Flagging $30 Billion Exposure To Private Credit
Yet another canary in the ever growing coalmine that is private credit appeared this morning as Deustche Bank’s annual report flagged a significant €26 billion ($30 billion) exposure to private credit, an asset class that’s grappling with fund redemptions, scrutiny of underwriting standards and the impact of AI on some borrowers such as software makers.
As the slow-motion train-wreck gathers steam (most recently with Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, and BlackRock gating investors in their private credit funds), investors are searching various financial entities balance sheets for exposures with the giant German lender itself warning:
“Failures of a select number of sub-prime lenders in the U.S. increased investor focus on risks associated with private credit and raised wider concerns around underwriting standards and fraud risk.”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Again, it is ALL about credit!”
Failed German 10 Year Government Bond Auction is a ‘Canary in a Coal Mine’
This is a short, but important article.
Short because there is not a ton of info out ‘there’ about the actual particulars of yesterday’s German Government bond auction.
Important, because when a 1st world sovereign power can’t sell enough debt to cover its stated needs, a canary just died in the coal mine-so to speak.
The publications of investing.com, gotrade.com and Bloomberg have articles up about the German Gov’t bond offering of one day ago. And yes, the war does have something to do with inflation and rates going up a bit. The above articles reported the rate of the new bond, but not much else. Big deal.
Bill’s Commentary:
“I disagree with Erik on this one. I believe he is wrong in the short run but right in the long run, but for different reasons. Iran is getting the snot beaten out of them currently and there may not be much left afterwards. The US on the other hand, has given the world quite a display of ordnance use. But what will happen should there be a problem elsewhere such as Taiwan? Have we spent too much ammo or unveiled previous unseen weaponry? Not to mention the world coming together in BRICS fashion which destroys the dollar. I believe Ron Paul is correct, this “excursion” may very well be exposure the dollar cannot handle?”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“True story!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“A good one from Chris Marcus”
Why Gold & Silver Haven’t Rallied After Breakout of Iran War
The gold and silver prices are rallying today, perhaps seemingly paradoxically so, given how this comes on the heels of Donald Trump saying last night that the Iran war will be over ‘very soon.’
Yet the gold futures are having a big day and are currently up $98 to $5,201, while the silver futures are up $3.75 to $88.26.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Filled out ballots? From various other states? How is this even possible? …And it’s now over 5 years later?”
FBI secretly seizes election records from Arizona’s largest county as voting probe expands
The FBI is expanding its criminal probe into suspected election irregularities, secretly obtaining a large tranche of voting records from Arizona’s largest county with a recent grand jury subpoena, multiple people familiar with the probe told Just the News.
The sources, who spoke only on condition of anonymity because of the secrecy of the grand jury probe, said FBI agents are receiving terabytes of electronic election data from Maricopa County, about a month after the bureau first disclosed an investigation into election irregularities by raiding a warehouse near Atlanta and seizing ballots from the 2020 election conducted in Fulton County, Georgia’s largest metropolis.
The subpoena comes five years after the GOP-led Arizona state Senate conducted a lengthy investigation into the 2020 election and concluded there were significant irregularities.
Bill’s Commentary:
“The first casualty of war is TRUTH!”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“The gates are closing!”
Has the Great Taking Begun?
If you (like me) keep mixing up Blackstone and BlackRock, you can relax now. They’re both in serious financial trouble, so you can assert that either is “imploding” and be more-or-less right:
BlackRock fund limits withdrawals as redemptions rattle private credit
(Reuters) – BlackRock (BLK.N) said on Friday it has limited withdrawals from a flagship debt fund after a surge in redemption requests, as investor worries mount around the $2 trillion private credit industry.
Shares of the world’s largest asset manager fell 6.7% on the New York Stock Exchange, amid a broader market selloff after worse-than-expected U.S. jobs data and escalating U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“A history of monetary collapse.”
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Bill is interviewed by Andrew Maguire (Also posted under Interviews)
Silver Strain Rocks Global Markets Ft. Bill Holter
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire and Bill Holter explain why silver has become the critical pressure point in the global derivatives system, as surging physical delivery demands collide with rapidly tightening exchange inventories.
With futures contracts representing far more silver than exchanges can deliver and physical markets in Asia trading at persistent premiums, the experts highlight how mounting stress in Western futures markets could spark a historic breakdown.
Bill’s Commentary:
“The BRICS want to make sure that physical trumps paper as they want real and fair “settlement.” They will prevail. Something no one has even whispered yet is that Iran is absolutely critical to a functioning “Silk Road”. Does anyone really believe when push comes to shove, that China/BRICS will not attack the Achilles tendon of Western finance directly? Frank Giustra is correct. Your standard of living is about to drop… I ask, got gold? Got silver?”
‘Paper gold is over’ as BRICS nations build dollar-free payments
Beaver Creek, Colorado – Canadian dealmaker Frank Giustra says the age of paper gold is ending as BRICS nations stand up a parallel financial system that routes around the US dollar and prizes deliverable metal.
“We’re now, believe it or not, in the era of hard money,” Giustra said Tuesday in a conversation with Alex Deluce of the Ontario-based bulletin Gold Telegraph at the Precious Metals Summit. “If you own paper gold, you do not own gold. When the crunch comes, it will not be there.”
China and partners among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations are building a system to mirror Western finance. It spans payments, settlement, depositories, ratings and swap lines – all outside the dollar. It downplays paper gold, products like gold exchange-traded funds, sovereign gold bonds and gold futures that represent a stake in gold’s value without physically possessing the metal.
Bill’s Commentary:
“…it is ALL about credit!”
Big Lenders’ Risky Loans Are Rattling Wall Street
Blue Owl Capital, a giant Wall Street lender, used to do just about anything for attention. It hosted investment advisers at five-star resorts, advertised on digital billboards, slapped its logo on professional tennis players and hosted a pickleball tournament in Central Park.
But for the past few weeks, Blue Owl has been the talk of Wall Street for an altogether different reason. It has been trying to convince investors that its $300 billion portfolio of investments and loans is actually worth what Blue Owl says.
Despite a blitz of conference calls, media interviews and news releases, Blue Owl appears not to have resolved the miasma surrounding the firm. Rather, its efforts to calm many investor jitters may have contributed to worries that Wall Street is on the precipice of a broad, new credit crisis. On Tuesday, Blue Owl stock was down as much as 9 percent, nearing its lowest point as a public company. The share prices of other large lenders also fell.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Our pal Grizzly checks in with a response to Erik”
Mornin.
Now we’re talkin!
My opinion on your opinion does not matter as I believe you are free to write what you want and would never want that freedom denied. As I’ve stated, I often grow weary of the constant complaining but that’s your right as well.
I think about this topic nearly daily and I believe you’ve hit on the crux of the issue as I see it. The federal government, really all levels of government in this two party charade have grown to be fat, bloated ticks off our blood , our time, our treasure and our talents.
The pendulum swings. I put up with so many years of the pendulum stuck in the left as if defying gravity. Now it’s swung somewhat back towards the right but never gets even to the middle and definitely not far enough to the right for me who wants the most limited of limited (read barely existent) federal government. I’m not stuck in the middle. I’m stuck in the far right (bad connotation nowadays) merely wanting to be left alone – which is, I believe, an “ancient” attitude of this nations explorers, pioneers and early settlers. But we always lose. We’re never allowed to be left in peace – someone always shows up to build a school, a church and then a government building from which soon are flowing a myriad of new regulations – under the guise of “progress” and the freedom to live as we want and as our Creator has allowed, is usurped little by little. The desire/responsibility to help family and neighbors is exchanged for wanting help from the government in some form – and thus the trap slams shut. So the few of us left with this gnawing, innate curse of freedom to the core, takes our pleasure from faith in God; living one with Him in His amazing creation; and trying to be as self-reliant as possible so as to truly be free to live the way we want and with whom we want and not slaves to the system in any form. Perhaps that’s why the late Jim Sinclair and my good friend Bill Holter’s G.O.T.S. teaching has resonated with me from the beginning with me as I’ve tried to live like this as much as possible with kids and businesses for most of my life. Getting out of the system entirely is difficult to do but the journey to get there is worth the effort. I don’t relate to clowns or jokers either. But we will see who is left standing, or at least breathing, when the dust settles on this once great idea of America.
Thanks for the articles – all of them, like them or not. Griz”
The latest from Erik –
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The latest from USA Watchdog – (Also posted under Interviews)
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Grok on the current month COMEX silver deliveries.”
Grok Conversation
What is the starting point in deliveries of Comex Silver Feb 27th?
The starting point for deliveries on Comex Silver as of February 27, 2026 (First Notice Day for the March 2026 contract) refers to the initial standing for delivery or the number of contracts/buyers intending to take physical delivery when notices begin.From CME reports and market analyses on that date:
- 10,526 contracts stood for delivery on First Notice Day for the March contract.
- Each Comex silver contract is 5,000 troy ounces, so this equates to 52.63 million ounces (10,526 × 5,000) of silver demand starting the delivery process.
This occurred against registered (deliverable) inventory of approximately 86.13 million ounces (some sources cited around 86-88 million oz, with minor variances in daily updates). For context:
- February 2026 (a minor delivery month) saw strong activity, with total deliveries around 5,036 contracts (~25.18 million oz), and some reports noting up to ~50 million oz outflow from vaults in the broader period.
- March is historically a major delivery month (often 3–5x higher than February), heightening focus on this starting figure amid low registered stocks and high open interest/paper claims (previously discussed ratios far exceeding physical availability, though no default occurred).
- Silver price on Feb 27 settled/closed around $90–$92/oz (e.g., ~$90.10–$92.68 in futures settlements), with spot near $89–$91, amid volatility and a rally on the day.
The official CME daily delivery notices report for business date 02/27/2026 (run on that day) details the issues and stops, confirming the initiation of March deliveries. No immediate default or force majeure was declared; many positions likely rolled or were managed, but the high initial standing highlighted ongoing physical tightness.Sources include direct CME delivery reports (e.g., MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.pdf for 02/27/2026) and contemporaneous market commentary from analysts tracking inventory and notices. For the most precise historical breakdown, refer to CME’s archived delivery reports.
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