Bill’s Commentary:
“Simply math…”
Interest on the national debt is eating a record 19% of federal revenue — and watchdog warns it will get worse
The federal government already spends more on debt interest than on Medicaid, national defense, or all non-defense discretionary programs combined. Now, with the 30-year Treasury yield surging past 5.19% — its highest level in almost 20 years — a leading fiscal watchdog is warning that what was already a crisis could turn into something far worse.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), interest costs consumed a record 3.25% of GDP and roughly 19% of all federal revenue in fiscal year 2025. If Treasury yields remain elevated at current levels — roughly 55 basis points above Congressional Budget Office projections across the yield curve — interest costs would grow 2.5-fold, climbing from $880 billion today to $2.5 trillion by 2036. That would push debt interest’s share of federal revenue to almost 30% — nearly triple its historical average over the past half-century.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Is this because we don’t pay enough taxes, or Treasury doesn’t borrow enough?”
Rebuilding US weapons stockpile may ‘take years’ post-Iran war
The United States has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but rebuilding its depleted inventories will “take years”, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Restoring pre-war stockpiles of four critical munitions heavily used by US forces during nearly 40 days of joint fighting with Israel against Iran would take at least two years – and in some cases more than three – the Washington-based think tank said on Wednesday.
While US officials publicly project confidence in weapons stockpiles, analysts have said that dwindling munition supplies may be shaping Washington’s calculations over whether to resume the war on Iran.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Why not a $1,000 bill? The dollar has already debased (versus gold) more than 90% since 2000, which would only make a $1,000 bill the new $100 bill…?”
Bessent: Nothing ‘untoward’ about Trump appearing on $250 bill
WASHINGTON — For more than a century, federal law has stipulated that only deceased individuals may appear on U.S. currency, but that could change. As the United States prepares to celebrate its 250th anniversary, proposed legislation could amend the Federal Reserve Act and allow a portrait of President Donald J. Trump be printed on a $250 bill.
“I don’t think that there’s anything untoward about having the president of the United States, the person who was president of the United States on the 250th anniversary bill,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday during a White House press briefing.
In February 2025, Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., introduced the Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act in the House. The legislation would “amend the Federal Reserve Act to require the Secretary of the Treasury to print $250 Federal reserve notes featuring a portrait of Donald J. Trump, and for other purposes.”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Banana Republic stuff?”
Bill,
Weimar-a Lago. Has a nice ring to it.
Make no mistake, this will be the new $1 bill, at some point in time. The fact that they are placing Trump on it and calling it a Semiquincentennial (250) bill is misleading. Takes the spotlight off the real reason 'WHY' we would be issuing a $250 bill.
Let's face it, you can't buy dinner for two with a $100 bill (the largest currency available to the public). And soon a gas fillup for your car will surpass $100. Lord knows, you'll soon need a wheelbarrow to haul enough cash around (unless, of course, you make the denominations larger) for daily purchases.
-They have already disposed of the penny.
-Is the nickel next? Perhaps under the guise that we need the metal for defense?
-And the dime? Perhaps too tiny. Easily gets lost.
-And the Quarter...a quarter of what? If they eliminate the $1 bill, then the quarter will be a misnomer.
Think about it....ever go to a Dollar Store and get something for a dollar?
Perhaps the elimination of all coinage will make the almighty Dollar the new penny!
Wolfgang
Bill’s Commentary:
“Governments have always been forced to debased due to overspending. Now, in a fiat world, there is nothing to debase as the currencies already have no substance and as such they have no intrinsic value…”
How empires die: the economic signals that come before the fall
Hold a Roman denarius from 64 CE. Feel its weight, its silver brightness. It contains approximately 93% silver — a coin Nero issued in a year the Great Fire would later make famous, though the debasement was already underway before the city burned. The fire didn’t create the fiscal problem. The fiscal problem was already looking for a coin to clip.
Now hold the same coin — to the eye, indistinguishable — from 268 CE, under Gallienus. It contains roughly 5% silver. Not 50%. Five. The government that minted it did not announce this. The soldiers paid in it could not have identified it without equipment that wouldn’t exist for seventeen centuries. Micro X-ray fluorescence analysis — the archaeometric technique that gives modern historians exact elemental composition of ancient coins — reveals what contemporaries could only sense: that the coin in their hand was worth a twentieth of what it looked like.
Two hundred and four years. One coin, two dates, an 85-point drop in silver content. Not a policy choice gone wrong. An arithmetic consequence.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Re: Gold”
It is called counterparty risk. Soon “counterparty risk” sill be a well known dirty term… Bill
Bill,
What if cryptos were not as safe or untouchable as we were led to believe?
Back to gold. The be all and end all.
It travels incognito: fungible and discreet.
Wolfgang
‘We Outright Grabbed The Wallets’: Bessent Boasts $1BN In Iran State Crypto Seized To Date
Washington’s economic war on Iran and its ‘shadow’ banking network continues, as on Friday Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US has seized $1 billion in Iranian cryptocurrency assets as part of the economic component of President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury.
The billion dollar figure represents the running total seized to date, building on prior milestones in the conflict, particularly a recent major April 2026 freeze of $344 million in USDT on the Tron blockchain. By close of April, $500 million total had been seized.
And so clearly with the addition since then of some half-billion dollars more in seized digital assets, the US Treasury program has only greatly accelerated in the last several weeks.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Where does the money come from?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“A good read by Adam Hamilton”
Gold’s Backward War Trade
Gold’s reactions to material US-Iran war news in recent months have been backwards. Contrary to logic and precedent, gold has plunged when the war intensified and rallied when it cooled. Several potential explanations for this odd technical behavior suggest it will prove a short-lived anomaly. The longer Iran can keep the globally-critical Strait of Hormuz closed, the more bullish gold’s short-term outlook becomes.
Since Trump went to war with Iran at the end of February, most of gold’s biggest daily moves have been spawned by war news. For example on March 18th gold plunged 3.6% after Israeli airstrikes hit Iran’s South Pars natural-gas field, the largest in the world by far. On March 31st, gold blasted 3.7% higher on the WSJ reporting that Trump told his top advisors he was willing to end his war without the Strait being reopened.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Correct”
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