BillHolter.com

Bill’s Commentary:

“What a SURPRISE!”

U.S. intercepted Ukraine government messages discussing plot to route money to Biden re-election

U.S. intelligence intercepted Ukrainian government communications discussing a plot to route hundreds of millions of American tax dollars earmarked for clean energy in the war-torn country and move them to the United States to enrich then-President Joe Biden’s 2024 re-election campaign and the Democratic National Committee, according to a declassified intelligence report summarizing the intercepts that was obtained by Just the News.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard recently learned of the intercepts and has asked the U.S. Agency for International Development officials to scour for records to see if the plot actually was carried out and whether a criminal referral should be made to the FBI.

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“Sit back and let your enemies bankrupt themselves W.”

Bill, 
If almost a quarter trillion dollars in requested supplemental funding for the Pentagon will last only days, Lord help us if this war is prolonged.
Hyperinflation will get us before the Iranians are stopped.
Got gold?
Wolfgang 
"The comments came after the Pentagon days prior unveiled a massive $200 billion supplemental request in order to fund the war, which was at first previewed by White House officials as lasting a mere 'days' or a few 'weeks' and not months (or years)."

Republican Lawmakers Led By Nancy Mace Begin To Break With Trump On Iran War: ‘We Were Misled’

Republican lawmakers are belatedly starting to wake up to the potential for the United States to once again get bogged down in yet another Middle East quagmire, but this time with a country double the size of Iraq (both in geography and population).

GOP Rep. Nancy Mace has led the charge this week, blasting any potential Trump admin move to put American boots on the ground, warning she will vehemently oppose new war funding if American troops are deployed in Iran. “I’ll be voting against the funding if we’re putting troops on the ground,” Mace told a reporter outside the Capitol earlier in the week. “I’m not going to fund that.”

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“A pretty good synopsis!”

Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy

@Macrobysunil

·4m

Iran war didn’t create the problem.

It just pulled the curtain back.

And what’s underneath doesn’t look good.

We’re not watching a geopolitical event anymore.

This is starting to look like the early stages of a financial one.

Oil ripping higher wasn’t just a headline.

It reset the entire macro backdrop overnight.

Higher energy → inflation risk comes back → rate cuts get pushed out.

That alone is enough to stress the system.

Now look at what followed.

UBS just halted withdrawals in a real estate fund.

Up to 3 years.

That’s not a routine move.

That’s what happens when money wants out, but the door is too small.

And this is where it gets uncomfortable.

A lot of these funds were sold as “liquid” exposure.

But the assets underneath aren’t.

You can’t sell buildings overnight.

You can’t meet redemptions if everyone shows up at once.

So the only option is to stop them.

This isn’t isolated either.

Private credit is seeing the same pressure.

Real estate is already struggling with higher financing costs.

Buyers are stepping back.

Everything works fine… until liquidity is needed.

Then you find out what’s real and what isn’t.

The sequence is pretty straightforward:

Oil shock → inflation uncertainty → tighter financial conditions

→ investors start pulling money

→ funds struggle to meet exits

→ gates go up

And once that starts, it feeds on itself.

People don’t wait around to find out if they’ll be next.

They pull capital wherever they still can.

That’s how stress spreads.

Not in one big collapse, but in small breaks that start linking together.

The bigger point here,

The system was already stretched.

Too much depended on low rates, easy liquidity, smooth exits.

The war just sped things up.

What you’re seeing now are early cracks.

Nothing dramatic yet, but the kind you don’t ignore.

Because if liquidity keeps getting tighter from here,

these “contained” issues won’t stay contained for long.

This is how these cycles usually begin.