BillHolter.com

Bill’s Commentary:

“JJ, because they are paper markets vs real physical markets?”

I’m wondering when this administration will ask Jamie Dimon why COMEX silver is at a $30 discount from Shanghai and who is profiting off the spread? 

Why is Shanghai offering $150,000 more per Comex AG contract then we are?

Jeremiah Johnson

Bill’s Commentary:

“Is this because there is too much silver floating around?”

BREAKING: AUSTRALIA’S PERTH MINT SUSPENDS SILVER SALES

Yesterday, we alerted SilverTrade readers that a Major Government Mint was shutting down silver sales within 24 hours.

🚨HUGE BREAKING NEWS 🚨

🔥MAJOR GOVERNMENT MINT IS SHUTTING DOWN SILVER SALES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 🔥

*We are NOT at liberty to disclose the mint (by request) as it has not yet been publicly disclosed, but a MAJOR SUPPLY SIDE SHOCK IS ABOUT TO HIT THE SILVER MARKET!!

— SilverTrade (@silvertrade) January 29, 2026

We can now disclose that the major mint halting silver sales today is The Perth Mint:

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“Brian, 

When all is said and done, the physical markets will pop every paper circuit breaker until their paper burns to ash…” Bill

Hi Bill,

I’ve always heard that the markets have “circuit breakers” and trading halts to prevent massive moves either up or down. Did they unexpectedly fail in silver today like the cameras in Epstein’s jail cell?? Did the servers overheat and prevent the circuit breakers from working? How can any asset drop 30% in a day without any intervention. I guess I already know the answer, the banks, the government and everyone WANTED silver to drop and so the rules were probably ignored.  Will any official ever be asked the question? I’m not worried, silver will probably be at all-time highs next week. I’m just so disgusted by the blatant lawlessness of it all. $1,000 silver is coming along with the dystopian world you predict. 

Cheers. 

Brian 

Bill’s Commentary:

“No need to be traumatized, we have watched them do this since the late nineties. Their new problem is this, they can smash prices with the sale of naked contracts all they want, but they can’t print the silver to deliver on these contracts. The efforts to kill price will in reality only bring more buyers worldwide, they shot an entire foot off yesterday. Failure to deliver is right around the corner!”

SILVER’S “IMPOSSIBLE” CRASH: THE NON-BANK ROBBERY

On Friday, January 30, 2026, silver prices collapsed 26.33% in a single day—from $115.81 to $85.31 per ounce. Mathematicians call this a “10-sigma event.”

To understand how rare that is: it should happen once every billion years, not on a random weekday.

When something statistically impossible happens, it’s not magic. It’s mechanics.

The Setup: A Powder Keg

Before the crash, silver was tight. Not “a little scarce”—actually tight:

• COMEX warehouse inventories near historic lows
• Shanghai buyers paying $123 per ounce for physical metal
• Industrial demand (solar panels, electronics) still strong
• Nothing fundamentally changed to justify a price collapse

So why did paper silver crash 26% when physical silver remained scarce?

Who Benefits From a 10-Sigma Crash?

1. Large Short Sellers – When you short silver, you promise to deliver actual metal. If you can’t deliver and prices keep rising, you face unlimited losses. A sudden crash forces your opponents (the longs) to sell at terrible prices, relieving your delivery pressure.
2. Clearinghouses – These institutions guarantee trades. When too many members face margin calls simultaneously, the clearinghouse itself risks failure. A violent crash reduces open positions and systemic risk—even if it destroys “fair” price discovery.
3. Bullion Banks – Major banks often manage mismatches between paper contracts and physical inventory. A crash gives them breathing room to rebalance without chasing higher prices.
4. Strategic Buyers – Countries accumulating physical silver (like China) can now buy American panic at $85.13 while holding metal worth $123 in Shanghai.

The Nickel Precedent

This isn’t new. In March 2022, the London Metal Exchange halted nickel trading when prices spiked, then cancelled already-executed trades to protect a major Chinese short seller from default. Winners became losers overnight—not by market forces, but by decree.

What Comes Next?

Here’s the problem: The 10-sigma crash didn’t create new silver. Vaults are still tight. Chinese demand didn’t vanish. Industrial use continues.

Paper price says $85.13. Physical reality says $123. That’s a $37.87 gap that physics, not paper, will eventually resolve.

When it does, expect the opposite: a violent spike upward—possibly the “20-sigma event” needed to correct this distortion. History shows these reconciliations are never smooth. They’re explosive.

The Bottom Line

Ten-sigma events don’t happen naturally in honest markets. They happen when:

• Leverage exceeds available supply
• Powerful players face existential threats
• System preservation trumps price discovery

Someone needed this crash. The math proves it wasn’t random. The beneficiaries are visible in who survives and who doesn’t.

As Shanghai buyers continue paying $123 for physical metal, American paper traders are learning a hard lesson: when reality and derivatives collide, the exchange picks winners.

And 10-sigma events reveal exactly who they chose.

This was a robbery without a gun—executed in plain sight, recorded in every tick of market data. The vault is empty, but the receipts keep printing.

Respectfully,

Michael Quick