BillHolter.com

Bill’s Commentary:

“Debt, debt, debt…. debt is everywhere! But what happens when interest rates go up? …and they will.”

Short-Term Debt, Long-Term Impact: Treasury’s Strategy in Focus

The White House wants cheaper debt while the bond market wants clarity. This morning, we get both…

Since taking office in January, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pursued one clear goal: lower the yield on U.S. Treasurys. He keeps emphasizing the point that cheaper yields mean lower borrowing costs for households and businesses. After all, Treasury rates anchor everything from mortgages to auto loans. The White House, he says, is committed to using every tool at its disposal to bring yields down.

At first, Bessent assumed the Federal Reserve would lend a hand by cutting interest rates. But the White House’s tariff policies stirred fresh uncertainty around growth and inflation, leaving Fed officials hesitant until recently. So, Bessent turned to other levers.

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“And silver?”

China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver

According to Trump, his big achievement a week ago when he announced the trade truce with China, was getting Beijing to agree to remove export limitations on rare earth minerals, which as most now know are so critical for US companies to make everything from cell phones, to cars, and military equipment. And yet, as discussed on a few occasions this week, it feels like the cracks in this latest trade deal are already starting to show, whether it is Beijing ordering Trump what he can’t talk about, or quietly ring-fencing its domestic data center by banning US AI chips.

And now, it appears that while China granted Trump a 1 year reprieve on rare earths, it is quietly tightening the export noose on other, just as important minerals.

According to the Global Times, China has introduced new export controls on silver, antimony, and tungsten.

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“Our pal Wolfgang checks in with recent layoffs.”

This is just in the last month.

Look at UPS and Amazon….right before the holidays!

I can hear the printing presses at the Fed warming up. Layoffs in the last month: 
IBM:  3000 layoffs, META: 600 layoffs, AMAT: 1400, Charter: 1,200, Kroger: 1000, Comcast: 400, UPS:  48,000, Rivian: 600, Paycom: 500, Oracle: 450, Amazon: 30,000, Target: 1,800, Accenture:  11,000, Salesforce: 4,000, Nestle: 16,000, Microsoft: 7,000, Intel: 24,000, Ford: 11,000, GM: 1,700, Starbucks:  900, International Paper: 1,100, Duke University: 600, Alaska Air: 252, PGE: 300, PWC: 5,600, Paramount: 2,000, Novo: 9,000

Bill is interviewed by Triangle Investor (Also posted under Interviews)

Bill’s Commentary:

“Ah Silver!”

Disagreements Emerge Over US-China Rare Earth Deal, As US Adds Uranium, Silver To Critical Minerals List

Two days ago, when discussing China’s surprising announcement that Trump should not cross four “red lines” (including i)Taiwan, ii) democracy and human rights, iii) China’s political system, and iv) development rights) or risk a collapse of the trade truce, we said that “ever since the recent “truce” in the trade war between the US and China was signed in Korea one week ago – the latest of many such ceasefires meant to be broken – skeptics have been patiently counting down until this latest ceasefire is torn up, and tensions between the two superpowers flare up once more.”

Needless to say, China telling Trump what the US president can and can not say is one of those things that the generally “sanguine and quite calm” US president tends to not be too excited about, and which leads to occasional bursts of outrage which then restart trade wars.

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“Erik sounds like me regarding debt.”

The latest from Erik –