“I would question that it is only half the country?”
“They say half the country.” JB
Six of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported little or no change in economic activity through the end of February, according to the Federal Reserve latest Beige Book survey of conditions.
The other six districts indicated growth expanded at a modest pace, the report said.
As a result, nationwide activity increased only slightly, the Fed report concluded.
That fits with the forecast of a slight 0.4% decline in first quarter GDP from S&P Global Market Intelligence, a leading forecasting firm. The government data won’t be released until the end of April.
The Beige Book is a collection of anecdotal data designed to give central bank officials a feel for conditions on the ground as they meet to plot interest-rate policy later this month.
It is a companion to the secret Green Book of economic data that Fed officials receive from the Fed staff as they prepare for their monetary policy discussions. These reports are only made public after five years.
According to Taiwanese authorities, on Feb. 2, a Chinese fishing boat damaged an undersea communications cable that connects Taiwan’s main island to Matsu Islands. About one week later, a Chinese cargo ship severed another cable.
Located approximately 30 miles off the coast of China, the tiny island of Dongyin has quickly established a backup communication system, as reported by the WSJ. The new system uses a high-powered microwave radio to transmit data to Taipei. WSJ described the disruption as a “wartime scenario” and “in a potential preview of a Chinese attack.”
“They have raised rates from zero to 5% in roughly 15 months. The largest and fastest hiking cycle in US history …and of course with absolute and ratio’d debt levels never before seen! What could possibly go wrong?”
The latest spike in bond yields was enough to spook the stock market into a sell-off Tuesday, but there’s a silver lining for fixed income investors: Short-term Treasurys are now touting a risk-free return of 5%.
The latest action follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said Tuesday that interest rates are “likely to be higher” than previously expected. “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” he said.
There will be catastrophic consequences if the US fails to “hit the brakes” and allows the relationship with China to continue to go downhill, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang warned on Tuesday.
His comments, during his first press conference in his new role, left many observers with the impression that hopes for a quick rapprochement between the two global powers were fading.
“One side is not trying to run its best, but always trying to trip the other side, and even wants to push the other side to compete in the Paralympics instead,” Qin said.
“Then it would not be a fair competition, but a malicious confrontation.”
“As our pal Dave would say, dead men tell no tales?”
The complaint makes devastating and detailed charges. It charges that the bank sat on a pile of evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was running a child sex trafficking ring as it continued to keep him as a client; accept his lucrative referrals of wealthy clients; and provided him with large sums of cash and wire transfers to pay off victims – one of whom was a “14-year old sex slave.”
BOISE, Idaho — The Idaho State House today approved a bill to enable the State Treasurer to protect state funds from inflation and other financial risks by holding some physical gold and and silver.
State representatives voted 40-29 to pass House Bill 180, the Idaho Sound Money Reserves Act, sending the measure — introduced by Rep. Barbara Ehardt, R-Idaho Falls, and Sen. Phil Hart, R-Kellogg — to the Senate for a hearing.
“It almost seems as if conspiracy “theories” should be considered facts until they are proven false?”
Bill’s commentary:
“Charts from our pal Dismal Dave”
‘The American Dream will then die, on battlefields all over the world and a nation conceived in liberty, will destroy liberty for Americans and impose tyranny on subject nations.’ George S. Boutwell. (1818-1905).
Blackstone Inc. defaulted on a €531 million ($562 million) bond backed by a portfolio of Finnish offices and stores as rising interest rates hit European property values.
Blackstone, which acquired landlord Sponda Oy in 2018, sought an extension from holders of the securitized notes to dispose of assets and repay the debt, according to people with knowledge of the plan. Bondholders voted against a further extension, the people said, asking not to be identified as the sales process was not public.
Property values are dropping in Europe as rising interest rates put off buyers until a clearer picture about how far rates will rise emerges. That’s led to wide gaps between bids and offers, crimping deal volumes and putting pressure on owners with loans that are maturing. About a third of all loans in commercial-mortgage backed securities maturing in 2023 and 2024 face high refinancing risks, according to a study published by Scope Ratings in January.
“Yet counter-party risk is barely if ever spoken of these days?”
It’s become almost like clockwork: every two weeks we get some news that send Credit Suisse stock to new all time lows.
At the beginning of February, the stock of the second largest Swiss bank plunged after it reported its losses would unexpectedly continue well into 2023 if not 2024, and that the bank run revealed at the end of 2022 was much worse than the bank had previously admitted, prompting some analysts to call it “staggering.”
“Simple math, higher interest rates foisted upon the most over levered system in all of history will be a death knell!”
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped back over 7% on Thursday, rising to 7.1%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
Growing fears that inflation is not cooling off are pushing bond yields higher. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury.
“Rates continue to move at the suggestion of economic data, and the data hasn’t been friendly. This is scary considering this week’s data is insignificant compared to several upcoming reports,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
“”One is none, two are one …and three are unstoppable”! I know the price tag sounds stupid crazy and I thought so too, but what is the value of your family’s lives or your own for that matter?”
Before Arteom Bulgadarian bought his Sherman Oaks home, it belonged to baseball star Yasiel Puig, who was burglarized of $170,000 worth of jewelry and other items while he was out of town.
So Bulgadarian, 44, has been vigilant about security since moving in, especially with three young children and a job running an aerospace manufacturing company that often necessitates late nights at the office. He owns several guns and has equipped his nearly 5,000-square-foot, six-bedroom house, set behind an iron gate, with surveillance cameras and an alarm system. A neighborhood watch group patrols the area around the clock.
‘If you want the rainbow, you gotta put up with the rain.’ Steven Wright. (1955-)
Bill’s commentary:
“Ayn Rand was full of quotes!”
Who is Ayn Rand? Born to a middle-class Russian-Jewish family in 1905, Rand was treated to a front-row seat to the wonders of communism in action. Rand fled with her family to the Crimea following the “liberation” of her father’s pharmacy but ultimately returned to Saint Petersburg where she could attend university when she wasn’t busy starving. Due to her life experiences, Ayn Rand’s quotes are some of the most thought-provoking in the world.
Rand was granted a visa to visit her relatives in Chicago in 1925. Upon her arrival the next year she was driven to “tears of splendor” by the sight of Manhattan’s skyline. Needless to say there was no going back for the young woman, who upon witnessing American cinema set out to become a Hollywood screenwriter.
‘It is not true that Congress spends money like a drunken sailor. Drunken sailors spend their own money. Congress spends our money.’ Dr. Arthur Laffer. (1940-).
Happy Anniversary!
Bill’s commentary:
“Do you understand what is happening? The US has bullied and pillaged the world for many years. The rest of the world led by China and Russia are standing up to the bully. Are you ready for a drastic change in your standard of living?”
A massive, 4000-word scathing critique of American foreign policy was circulated by Chinese embassies hosted in Western countries this week, including to American officials and media. It included a lengthy laundry list of US crimes abroad and imperialist tactics.
The long essay was first published in state-run Xinhua News agency, and is entitled “U.S. Hegemony and Its Perils”. It heavily focuses on Washington’s recent wars in the Middle East, which have killed many tens of thousands of people, as well as bullying sanctions on countries like Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and Russia which have had a strangling effect on entire populations.
For a sampling of the kind rhetoric contained in the essay, which at this point has semi-official status as a Chinese government document (again, given it’s being circulated by the Chinese embassy in D.C., among others), one section begins: “So far, the United States had or has imposed economic sanctions on nearly 40 countries across the world, including Cuba, China, Russia, the DPRK, Iran and Venezuela, affecting nearly half of the world’s population.”
BillHolter.com 