Bill’s Commentary:
“Another Jon AG video. To be clear, I did not say any of this as far as timing. I have said for years however, that “3 day weekends” are the likely time for any system changing announcements. His comments are largely correct with the exception of trying to pinpoint dates.”
Bill’s most recent interview
Bill’s most recent interview (Also posted under Interviews)
Bill’s Commentary:
“Oops, this is not a rounding error!”
Oracle Firing Tens Of Thousands As CDS Explodes To Financial Crisis Record
Two months ago, when ORCL announced it would raise $50 billion in a combination of stock and bonds to ease market fears about its soaring funding costs and lack of actual revenues and “to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from the company’s largest cloud customers, including Advanced Micro Devices, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, OpenAI, TikTok and xAI” we said that this latest example of financial engineering, which perhaps most importantly was meant to push its soaring Credit Default Swap lower, was doomed to fail.
We didn’t have long to wait: since the Feb 1 announcement, the stock has tumbled to fresh multi year lows…
Bill’s Commentary:
“We have shown this chart to you several times now. Please notice the “hook” forming in the bottom right-hand corner. I believe the bottom is now in and the hook will cross upwards in the next day(s) creating a buy signal for the MOMO crowd. You had two months to the day of clutching your hands, that looks like it will be in the rear view mirror pronto!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“There is no such thing as “digital gold”…”
Google Finds Quantum Computers Could Break Bitcoin Sooner Than Expected
Google just told the Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies industry it has less time than it thought to prepare for the quantum computing influence. In a whitepaper published March 31, Google Quantum AI researchers demonstrated that breaking the elliptic curve cryptography protecting bitcoin, ether and most major cryptocurrencies could require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits on a superconducting quantum computer. That’s roughly a 20 times reduction from prior estimates, which pegged the figure in the millions.
The paper carries serious institutional weight. Its coauthors include Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation, Dan Boneh of Stanford, and six Google Quantum AI researchers led by Ryan Babbush and Hartmut Neven. Google says it engaged with the U.S. government before publishing and names Coinbase, the Stanford Institute for Blockchain Research, and the Ethereum Foundation as collaborators.
Breaking Bitcoin with quantum may be easier than thought, with Taproot partly to blame, Google says
Breaking Bitcoin’s blockchain with quantum computers may not be as difficult as once thought, and Bitcoin’s Taproot technology, which enables more efficient, private transactions, may be partly to blame, Google’s Quantum AI team said Monday in a blog post and newly published whitepaper.
The team said the computing power required to break Bitcoin’s security may be far lower than previously assumed, raising fresh questions about how soon quantum threats could become a reality.
In a new whitepaper, researchers found that cracking the cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum could require fewer than 500,000 physical quantum bits, or qubits, well below the “millions” often cited in recent years.
Bill is interviewed by Dr. Dave Janda and discusses March COMEX silver.
Bill is interviewed by Dr. Dave Janda and discusses March COMEX silver. (Also posted under Interviews)
Bill’s Commentary:
“Based on what? Political beliefs? Whether or not you criticize the current administration? Nefarious to say the least!”
The IRS Wants Smarter Audits. Palantir Could Help Decide Who Gets Flagged
The Internal Revenue Service paid Palantir $1.8 million last year to improve a custom tool designed to help the tax agency identify the “highest-value” cases for audits, collection of unpaid taxes, and potential criminal investigations, according to documents WIRED obtained via public record request.
When the contract was signed, the IRS said it was using “more than 100 business systems and 700 methods,” built over the course of “decades” to select cases in which people may have incorrectly reported their taxes or owe the IRS money. As identifying potential tax discrepancies became more complex, the agency said its systems grew increasingly inefficient, and it needed to find a solution.
“This fragmented landscape can lead to a number of undesirable outcomes including but not limited to duplication of effort and cost, poor understanding of gaps in the coverage, and suboptimal case selection,” the IRS wrote in a document obtained by WIRED outlining the scope of the contract.
Bill’s Commentary:
“TRX Gold Added to S&P/TSX Global Mining Index!”
 TRX Gold Corp. is pleased to announce its inclusion in the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index, a globally recognized benchmark that tracks the performance of leading mining companies worldwide. This milestone represents a meaningful step forward in TRX Gold’s capital‑markets presence and highlights the Company’s strong operational momentum, expanding production profile, and growing financial strength. The index is widely followed by institutional investors, ETFs, and global mining funds, providing TRX Gold with increased visibility and broader market reach.Capital‑Markets SignificanceMembership in the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index provides several strategic advantages:Increased Passive Investment ExposureIndex‑tracking funds, ETFs, and institutional strategies that follow the index will now include TRX GoldBroader Institutional VisibilityMany global asset managers use index membership as a screening criterion. TRX Gold’s inclusion expands its visibility across mining‑focused and generalist funds.Validation of Corporate ProgressThe addition reflects TRX Gold’s consistent operational execution, production growth, and strengthening financial performance. Operational Momentum at BuckreefTRX Gold’s index inclusion is supported by strong fundamentals and ongoing development at the Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania:Record Production GrowthTRX Gold has delivered multiple consecutive quarters of production increases, supported by plant expansions and improved recoveries.Low‑Cost, Scalable OperationsBuckreef continues to demonstrate robust economics, with attractive cash costs and a scalable processing plant designed for phased growth.Resource Expansion PotentialContinued exploration success at Buckreef North, Buckreef Main, and the Anfield Zone highlights the potential for long‑term resource growth. Strengthening Financial PerformanceRevenue growth, improved operating margins, and disciplined capital allocation have positioned TRX Gold for sustainable value creation.Strategic OutlookIndex inclusion aligns with TRX Gold’s broader strategy to:Scale production through phased plant expansionsAdvance exploration to unlock additional resourcesStrengthen financial performance and cash flow generationEnhance global visibility within the gold‑producer landscapeAs TRX Gold continues to execute on its growth plan, increased market visibility and liquidity will support the company’s long‑term capital‑markets objectives. Thank you for your continued support. TRXGold.com View email in browser TRX Gold Corporation · Suite 403, 277 Lakeshore Road East · Oakville, ON L6J 6J3 · Canada update your preferences or unsubscribe |
Bill’s Commentary:
“Too funny!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Wait a minute, I thought 2 weeks ago it was 2/3rds?”
US ‘Only Certain Of Having Destroyed A Third’ Of Iran’s Missiles
The US is only certain it has destroyed around a third of Iran’s missiles, despite comments from President Donald Trump boasting of military success. According to five people familiar with the US intelligence who spoke to Reuters, the status of around another third is less clear. However, US-Israeli strikes have likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers.
Iran’s drone capability has also likely been reduced by a third, another source said. The assessment, which comes one month after the beginning of the US-Israeli assault on Iran, suggests Tehran still retains substantial missile capability and its ability to retaliate is far from eliminated. At a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Trump said – while discussing options to open the Straits of Hormuz – that 99 percent of Iran’s missiles had been destroyed.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
Bill’s Commentary:
“What a SURPRISE!”
U.S. intercepted Ukraine government messages discussing plot to route money to Biden re-election
U.S. intelligence intercepted Ukrainian government communications discussing a plot to route hundreds of millions of American tax dollars earmarked for clean energy in the war-torn country and move them to the United States to enrich then-President Joe Biden’s 2024 re-election campaign and the Democratic National Committee, according to a declassified intelligence report summarizing the intercepts that was obtained by Just the News.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard recently learned of the intercepts and has asked the U.S. Agency for International Development officials to scour for records to see if the plot actually was carried out and whether a criminal referral should be made to the FBI.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Sit back and let your enemies bankrupt themselves W.”
Bill,
If almost a quarter trillion dollars in requested supplemental funding for the Pentagon will last only days, Lord help us if this war is prolonged.
Hyperinflation will get us before the Iranians are stopped.
Got gold?
Wolfgang
"The comments came after the Pentagon days prior unveiled a massive $200 billion supplemental request in order to fund the war, which was at first previewed by White House officials as lasting a mere 'days' or a few 'weeks' and not months (or years)."
Republican Lawmakers Led By Nancy Mace Begin To Break With Trump On Iran War: ‘We Were Misled’
Republican lawmakers are belatedly starting to wake up to the potential for the United States to once again get bogged down in yet another Middle East quagmire, but this time with a country double the size of Iraq (both in geography and population).
GOP Rep. Nancy Mace has led the charge this week, blasting any potential Trump admin move to put American boots on the ground, warning she will vehemently oppose new war funding if American troops are deployed in Iran. “I’ll be voting against the funding if we’re putting troops on the ground,” Mace told a reporter outside the Capitol earlier in the week. “I’m not going to fund that.”
Bill’s Commentary:
“A pretty good synopsis!”
Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy
@Macrobysunil
·4m
Iran war didn’t create the problem.
It just pulled the curtain back.
And what’s underneath doesn’t look good.
We’re not watching a geopolitical event anymore.
This is starting to look like the early stages of a financial one.
Oil ripping higher wasn’t just a headline.
It reset the entire macro backdrop overnight.
Higher energy → inflation risk comes back → rate cuts get pushed out.
That alone is enough to stress the system.
Now look at what followed.
UBS just halted withdrawals in a real estate fund.
Up to 3 years.
That’s not a routine move.
That’s what happens when money wants out, but the door is too small.
And this is where it gets uncomfortable.
A lot of these funds were sold as “liquid” exposure.
But the assets underneath aren’t.
You can’t sell buildings overnight.
You can’t meet redemptions if everyone shows up at once.
So the only option is to stop them.
This isn’t isolated either.
Private credit is seeing the same pressure.
Real estate is already struggling with higher financing costs.
Buyers are stepping back.
Everything works fine… until liquidity is needed.
Then you find out what’s real and what isn’t.
The sequence is pretty straightforward:
Oil shock → inflation uncertainty → tighter financial conditions
→ investors start pulling money
→ funds struggle to meet exits
→ gates go up
And once that starts, it feeds on itself.
People don’t wait around to find out if they’ll be next.
They pull capital wherever they still can.
That’s how stress spreads.
Not in one big collapse, but in small breaks that start linking together.
The bigger point here,
The system was already stretched.
Too much depended on low rates, easy liquidity, smooth exits.
The war just sped things up.
What you’re seeing now are early cracks.
Nothing dramatic yet, but the kind you don’t ignore.
Because if liquidity keeps getting tighter from here,
these “contained” issues won’t stay contained for long.
This is how these cycles usually begin.
Bill’s Commentary:
“One of them should have worn blackface? A world gone mad…”
California University Cancels Governor Debate Over ‘Blowback’ for Candidates Being All White
All white is not alright, apparently.
The University of Southern California abruptly canceled its planned gubernatorial debate that was set for Tuesday night after the college was criticized for all six candidates being white.
That led to “outrage” and “blowback” against USC and compelled the school to scrap the debate less than 24 hours before it started, according to The New York Times.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Our pal Brian on Hotel California back in 2005.”
HOTEL DEBT CALIFORNIA
In a dark desert country, Christmas coming fast
Congress still in session, 1913 here at last
Seven men in the chamber; a Fed Proposal fright
My head grew heavy and my sight grew dim
We signed the contract that night
This gave us free money, but war takes tolls on thee
Gold coins and certificates were outlawed by thirty-three
And I cried to my God: “What have I unleashed”;
In sixty-five silver coins were gone; how will we stop the beast?
Welcome to Hotel Debt California
Such a lovely rate (such a lovely rate) in a debtor state
Plenty of room at Hotel Debt California
Any time of year (any time of year) you can buy it here
Nixon is Japanese twisted, he’s refusing the French
No more Gold, only Fiat for you; but let’s still be friends
You’ll like reserve dollars; earn them with your sweat
Some work to save beast bucks, some work to pay debt
So I called up Magoo Man; I’ll pay gold for my stay
he said, We haven’t had that coinage here since long before yesterday
And still those voices keep calling from far away
Wake you up in the middle of the night, just to hear them say
Welcome to Hotel Debt California
Such a lovely rate (such a lovely rate) in a debtor state
They livin’ it up at Hotel Debt California
What a nice surprise (what a nice surprise) bring your alibis
MasterChip in your forehead, a pink invoice is nice
And she said we are all just prisoners here of our own device
At the master’s image, they’re bowing at his feet
They charge it with their bobbing bows but they just can’t pay the beast
Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
Relax said the high priest; we are programmed to deceive
You can charge-up anything you like, but you can never be free.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
Bill’s Commentary:
“It looks like it will not be the March delivery month…
As you know, I believed there was a strong chance of the March silver contract being the one to fail on delivery. January, a non delivery month, saw over 50 million ounces drained followed by February with 25 million. These amounts were roughly 7 times normal deliveries. March came along and it looked like 52 million ounces on first notice day. This was significant because for the last couple of years, whatever stood on first notice day increased and sometimes more than doubled by the end of the month. We now stand at 42 million ounces standing for delivery for March, a decrease of about 10 million ounces. What happened?
The pattern of increased demand during the current delivery month over the last two years mysteriously ended this month unless there is a rush for metal over the next few days. I am going to call this another hat and another rabbit because physical demand all over the world is extremely strong and inventories held have shrunk dramatically. Shanghai now only stands at 13 million ounces, a fraction of what is was, while COMEX registered has dropped to 73 million ounces from well over 100 million. I ask, why were January and Feb so strong while not primary delivery months, and March as a primary delivery month was a dud? I do not have the answer to this.
The above said, COMEX silver total open interest is only 111,000 contracts. This is as low as I can remember going all the way back 20 years. I view this in 2 possible ways – the lack of interest by traders playing in a rigged casino, or big money not wanting to play the game because they understand the potential problems for delivery? In any case, the supply demand situation is tenuous at best as we have been in deficit for 5 years. Last year alone demand exceeded supply by some 450 million ounces.
Gold and silver have/had become oversold and the bottoming process is in the works, “bottom” has probably already occurred Sunday/Monday AM. So, we sit and wait for the inevitable. The grand picture has always been money supplies growing faster than mining production, so price reflected higher prices with more cash chasing a nearly static supply. I still believe silver will be the one that breaks first with a failure to deliver… time will tell.”
Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Bill’s Commentary:
“Hotel California at its finest!”
Bill,
My Oh My.
Look at all the teetering funds.
Shades of 2007 credit default swaps.
All these funds gating investors. They're like Venus fly traps...easy to get in, but you can't get out.
This smells like a Black Swan event with trillions in bailouts coming.
Can you feel it? The smell of inflation in the morning? "Smells like victory" (RIP Robert Duval)
People are constantly talking about inflation in terms of Cost Push, Demand Pull, Phillips Curve, blah blah blah.
These are only explanations. The root cause is rarely, if ever, addressed.
That is money printing.
I personally believe that without monetary expansion, you'll never get inflation.
You could get huge recessions (which correct higher prices). But not inflation.
How soon we forget Milton Friedman:
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”
So hold onto your gold.
Wolfgang
Apollo Private Credit Fund Is Latest To Gate Investors As KKR Fund Gets Junked By Moody’s
Amid the ongoing fracturing of the private credit industry, which after enjoying years of stable, levered growth (and when it ran out of institutional greater fools, it aimed lower, toward HNWs and retail) finally hit a brick wall thanks to the Claude-inspired SaaSpocalypse, which has led to a historic surge in redemption requests across the biggest (and certainly smallest) names in the industry, last week we said that debt funds managed by powerhouse firms including Blackstone, BlackRock, Cliffwater, Morgan Stanley and Monroe Capital have agreed to honor only 70% of the $10.1bn of redemption requests they have faced, according to FT calculations, as fund after fund is gating investors.
Bill’s Commentary:
“I have no way to verify if this story is 100% accurate; what I can say is, they do not want people to understand how money is created or what “money” really is. Whether you see it or not, that strategy has worked… and here we are!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“2008 redux…”
Moody’s cuts rating on private credit fund run by KKR and Future Standard to junk as bad loans grow
Moody’s Ratings on Monday downgraded a private credit fund run by KKR and Future Standard to junk amid rising bad loans and a string of weak earnings.
The ratings firm lowered the debt ratings of FS KKR Capital Corp by one notch to Ba1 from Baa3 — pushing it into “junk” territory — saying that the fund’s underlying asset quality had worsened more than its peers.
Non-accrual loans, meaning loans that borrowers have stopped making payments on, rose to 5.5% of total investments at the end of 2025, one of the highest rates among rated business development companies, according to the report.
Bill’s Commentary:
“You can ask 100 people if the US is broke and 95 will say “of course they are but it doesn’t matter.” Well, it may not matter today, tomorrow, or a year from now… but trust me, it will matter!”
The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it
The U.S. government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence. The numbers: $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30, 2025.
Importantly, the $47.78 trillion in reported liabilities does not include the unfunded obligations of social insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare — those are disclosed separately in the off-balance-sheet Statement of Social Insurance (SOSI).
BillHolter.com 