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Bill’s commentary:
“‘Discovered’? You mean someone actually looked? Imagine what they would find in the US?”
“Amidst market turmoil, we’ve discovered massive illegal naked short-selling by global investment banks and circumstances of additional illegal activities,” Financial Services Commission Chairman Kim Joo-hyun told a briefing. “It’s a grave situation where illegal short-selling undermines fair price formation and hurts market confidence.”
Bill’s commentary:
“Must be some of real substance to have a ‘news blackout’?”
There are extremely strange things happening in a very high-profile federal court case in Manhattan where the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, stands accused by victims of facilitating Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking ring that sexually abused minors as the bank doled out $40,000 to $80,000 a month in hard cash for more than a decade without filing the legally required Suspicious Activity Reports.
Bill’s commentary:
“It’s what they do …and why you have them!”
Bill’s commentary:
“It is only a matter of time …”
By Joe Sullivan, a senior advisor at the Lindsey Group and a former special advisor and staff economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump administration.
The wake of the BRICS summit splashes into a world much riper for de-dollarization now than it was even six months ago. BRICS, now BRICS+ due to the admission of new members, deserves only partial credit. In the last six months, tectonic shifts in China’s economy and in Washington have cleared the path for de-dollarization—an open route that BRICS+ can now step into.
Bill’s commentary:
“Some more ugliness from our pal Dismal Dave.”
“How does a recession happen?” “Slowly, and then all at once.”
“Bill, who could have seen this coming? I only said every Saturday it was going to go bust.
The firm signed office leases for 10 to 20 years, freshened up the space and generated buzz with perks such as free beer on tap to attract younger workers. As of June, WeWork was paying over $2.7 billion a year in rent and interest—more than 80% of its entire revenue, according to company filings. Its total losses since founding topped $16 billion as of June, as it churned through all the money it raised from top investors and lenders over the past decade.
So what does this say about how stupid these top investors are, very stupid?
Wall street is a ponzi!”
– Dave
Bill’s commentary:
“David, you have been spot on since we met in 1999, you will soon get paid very handsomely for being the quintessential ‘My cousin Vinny’. People who have never listened to you do not know what they missed!”
WeWork rode the wave of the venture-capital frenzy, building a global real-estate empire worth more than any other U.S. startup before buckling and laying off thousands when funding ran dry under its turbulent co-founder and former chief executive Adam Neumann.
Ultimately, though, it was a historic office market bust that doomed the desk-rental giant.
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Bill’s commentary:
“Silver lining? China’s property market, and by extension the debt carried by this sector, could be exactly what sparks the wildfire of debt implosion worldwide…”
China’s housing market is still struggling. Outstanding loans to the property sector fell on a yearly basis for the first time on record as consumers opt against buying homes.
The all-important sector clearly needs more support. But Beijing’s strategy is to shift resources from speculative sectors to more productive industries. In that sense, the difficult rebalancing is going according to the plan.
Bill’s commentary:
“”Debt service” kills!”
‘If ever again our nation stumbles upon unfunded paper, it shall surely be like death to our body politic. This country will crash.’ George Washington. (1732-1799).
Bill’s commentary:
“Is it possible there can actually be a cold day in hell? It doesn’t matter, the world already knows that Western central banks are insolvent. This is fact as interest rates have destroyed their balance sheets…”
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Bill’s commentary:
“Why? Do they know something we don’t?”
Alright, before we get into why this shit is surprising to me, I wanna lay the groundwork for the responsibilities of the US Central Command. From the government website:
Mission: USCENTCOM directs and enables military operations and activities with allies and partners to increase regional security and stability in support of enduring U.S. interests.
Command Priorities:
1. Deter Iran
2. Counter Violent Extremist Organizations
3. Compete Strategically
– Regional Constructs
– Integrated Air and Missile Defense/ Counter Unmanned Aerial systems
All those things sound relevant given the disasters that are dominating the news and the globe.
The area that CENTCOM polices is one that is at high alert right now and well, kinda always. Check out some of the countries listed here.
Bill’s commentary:
“How funny, I just recently decided to name my new dog ‘Karma’?”
Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price is no stranger to controversy. She raised eyebrows after she received at least $130,000 from George Soros during her failed 2018 election bid, then won in 2022 on a campaign of radical criminal reforms for the Oakland area. Her primary position? That minorities are disproportionately targeted by law enforcement and the criminal court system and that “equity” policies would stop the rising crime rate.
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Bill’s commentary:
“That last picture truly puts the shitter to good use! The charts are pretty good too…”
‘Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes.’ Oscar Wilde. (1854-1900).
Bill’s commentary:
“A well done article and worth your time to read and understand.”
Our classics teacher at Groton reminded us daily that every μεν has its δε. The first
of these ancient Greek words means “on one hand” and the latter “on the other hand.”
Especially in later, philosophical texts, quite a number of words could pass between
those two words, but there could never be one without the other. The instruction was
both a linguistic law and life lesson, one that the Greeks knew well.Bill’s commentary:
“Whether they do care or don’t, it doesn’t matter …because they WILL!”
How many of you out there have experienced this? You are having a conversation with a normie friend (if any of you have any of those left, friends who are normies) and you are doing really well with all the evidence you have gathered about the New World Order, the WEF, the bent on transhumanism from the global-wannabe-world-leader-technocrats, and all of the other things that are clearly obvious. And then whomever you are talking too really can’t come up with any sort of viable counterpoints and they just shake their head and say, “So what?”
“The latest is called ‘CV19 mRNA Vaccines Were Meant to Harm & Kill People’ – Dr. Michael Palmer.”
Dr. Michael Palmer MD was a biochemistry professor at University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, and was fired from his job in 2022 when he refused the CV19 so-called “vaccine.” He now helps run Doctors4CovidEthics.org.
Bill’s commentary:
“Unfortunately, Erik is not far off the mark…”
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Bill’s commentary:
“Do you remember 2 years ago when you pushed back against the jab …and all you could hear was ‘just do the right thing’? Guess what …YOU DID! “
New Zealand is a small country yet it often serves as a useful microcosm of events in other parts of the world.
At present men and women are being slaughtered.
Within the last few days Liz Gunn, head of NZ Loyal, one of the few political parties willing to speak out revealed leaked documents indicating that tens of thousands of the population have died from the experimental gene therapy. If you appreciate that the population of New Zealand is just 5 million it gives some idea of the scale of the slaughter. In one clinic in one day 30 people were given the jab. All 30 are now dead.
Bill’s commentary:
“HAPPY BIRTHDAY Dismal Dave, you earned it!”
‘I can see now that my main trouble was my failure to grasp the vital difference between stock gambling and stock speculation.’ Jesse Livermore.
– note:
Bit of a heads-up, folks. Whilst my pale, undernourished body continues to heal gradually, a certain significant event looms large; my birthday! Y’see, on Wed. week, I will attain a significant personal milestone; on that day, I will reach a perfect cricket score…80 not out! (fingers crossed!)
Starting tomorrow, the family begins to assemble and the celebrations will begin. Woo Hoo!
I mention all this because it will probably have a detrimental affect on my dismal output! Sorry.
However, feel free to raise a glass, or two, in acknowledgement of the event.
Sooo envious, given my alcohol-free restrictions at the moment @#$%.
FYI…
Quite right!
Bill’s commentary:
“Erik with today’s ‘normal’ reality that would have been total science fiction just a few short years ago.”
Bill’s commentary:
“In today’s world, anywhere that credit does not flow freely will fail with real world ramifications …”
Access to financing has become more complicated for oil refiners as banks are increasingly looking to reduce their exposure to fossil fuel projects, according to refining executives.
“If you have the word ‘refinery’ anywhere in your title, you’re not going to get finance,” Alwyn Bowden, chief executive officer of Malaysia’s Pengerang Energy Complex, said at an industry conference, as quoted by Bloomberg.
Banks are also increasingly demanding emission-cutting targets from the oil refiners seeking financing, Bowden noted.
Bill’s commentary:
“The real question is, “who” bails out the central banks? Then of course, who bails out the ‘bailers’?”
Two weeks ago we reminded the world that thanks to soaring interest rates, which will only keep rising until the Fed figures out what “big-enough” crisis it uses to trigger QEx+1, the staggering losses on global fixed income securities which according to the IIF amount to $307 trillion – as calculated by DB’s Jim Reid – have risen to a staggering $107 trillion. And while thanks to such facilities as the BTFP much of the MTM risk has been transferred (if only for the time being) away from commercial banks and to the Fed, the cumulative losses at central banks are now absolutely staggering, starting with the biggest and baddest one of all, where the Fed operating loss is now $111 billion and rising with every day that the Fed pays out more in interest to banks (excess reserves) and money markets (reverse repos) than it collects on its bond portfolio…
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Bill’s commentary:
“No problem, Janet Yellen can cover it!”
Last Friday, the Federal Reserve published its Financial Stability Report, which takes a detailed look at U.S. financial stability through the second quarter of this year. Although the Fed does its best to put a rosy glow on the outlook, it’s not a pretty picture.
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Bill’s commentary:
“Charts from our pal down under.”
‘Most successful investors, in fact, do nothing most of the time.’ Jim Rogers. (read much, Jim?)
Bill’s commentary:
“The commercial real estate market has already crashed and the housing market has frozen solid. Your 401k/brokerage statements don’t show this …yet, just wait a short time!”
Soaring interest rates and a slide in bank lending following March’s regional banking meltdown have pressured the commercial real estate sector, especially office towers nationwide. But the stress might be spreading as a new report warns one of San Francisco’s largest apartment buildings has sustained a near 50% collapse in valuation in just five years, with risks of imminent default.
Bill’s commentary:
“And you thought banking problems were over? Naw, just temporarily swept under the rug…”
As the chart above indicates, Friday was not a good day to own regional bank stocks. The percentage declines are just for the one day of trading on Friday — not the year-to-date percentage losses. After the bank runs this past spring at regional banks brought on the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history, things had quieted down in recent months. Then, along came earnings announcements last week, showing renewed struggles among the regional banks.
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Bill’s commentary:
“20 minutes with Michael Oliver, well worth your time! The man has had a very impressive track record…”
J. Michael Oliver: Founder of MSA – Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
Bill’s commentary:
“So as usual …follow the money!”
Geologists and resources economists have confirmed that the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) lies above sizeable reservoirs of oil and natural gas wealth, in Area C of the West Bank and the Mediterranean coast off the Gaza Strip, according to a recent UNCTAD study.
Bill’s commentary:
“At least we have come full circle? Your home is now a place to live, NOT an investment…”
Sales of previously owned homes dropped 2% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.96 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 15.4% lower compared with September 2022.
This is the slowest sales pace since October 2010, during the Great Recession, when the market was in the midst of a foreclosure crisis. As a comparison, just two years ago, when mortgage rates hovered around 3%, home sales were running at a 6.6 million pace. The average rate on the 30-year fixed today is right around 8%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
Bill’s commentary:
Debt, debt, and more debt!
‘Failing means yer playin!’ Auld Scottish saying.
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Bill’s commentary:
“Careful, this could turn into a credit event in a hurry!”
Israeli media is reporting that the United States is currently in talks to establish ‘safe zones’ in Gaza after it was widely reported that the IDF has been given the green light by the Netanyahu government to go into the Gaza Strip. There are also emerging reports that an Orthodox Church in Gaza has suffered attack by an Israeli strike, via Times of Israel:
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Bill’s commentary:
“Something old, something new”, yet still correct…
As many of you know, I began writing back in late 2006 and wrote steadily until about 2 years ago. To be honest, I got burned out from writing over the years as it seemed I was “re” covering ground I had already spoken about. While the end of the road has taken much more time than I or anyone else could imagine, that “end” is here and now. I can say here and now as the math of overleverage, coupled with crippling interest rates has arrived. In the past, central banks and sovereign treasuries could always bail out the system. Now, THEY are a huge part of the problem and in no way can they save anything, much less themselves…
With that said, I came across an article I wrote a few years back and will publish it here. I plan to dig up a few older articles that I believe are still “correct” and will update them with a few current notes. Hopefully it will be a refresher for long term readers or eye openers for new readers?
April, 2017
$5,000 silver?
A catchy title this “$5,000 Silver?” don’t you think? Am I crazy? Is this even possible? In who’s lifetime? Ours or our great, great grandchildren long after we are dead and buried? The best way to look at this I believe is to briefly look at silver’s big brother gold and then postulate whether it’s possible or not.
To begin, let’s look at what happened in 1980 and why gold traded up to $875 in the first place. As Jim Sinclair has said many times, gold “moved in a manner to cover the value of foreign held debt of the U.S.”. He has also said “$50,000 gold is possible and it may turn out that this figure is far too low”. Before you laugh and start firing spitballs at me or Mr. Sinclair, I remind you of his call of “gold at $1,650 per ounce by Jan. 2011”. He said this when gold was $350 per ounce or so and the year was around 2004 if memory serves me correctly. He was called a nutjob and far worse …he was correct in retrospect and off in his timing by about eight months …SEVEN YEARS AHEAD OF TIME!
To refresh your memory, let’s do some basic mathematics. The U.S. purportedly has 262 million ounces of gold. (As a side note, if you understand how much gold China has imported just over the last six years and compare that to global production, then you understand the U.S. has in all likelihood “dishoarded” much of this gold). We can compare this 262 million ounces to our national debt rounded off at $18 trillion. Doing the math, if we had to back our debt with the gold we supposedly have, the number currently comes up to $68,700 per ounce!
Before you call me nuts, I have one question for you. Were foreigners to decide that “dollars” for any (many!) reason was no longer acceptable, what would we “pay” with? Remember, since the dollar is the reserve currency, the U.S. holds almost NOTHING in foreign reserves. Why should we have to hold foreign reserves, we issue THE reserve currency?! And yes, I understand the debt is “contracted” in dollars so all we have to do is print more to make the payment. All I am saying is this, if the U.S. was forced somehow to actually settle the debt …in gold, our gold would need to be valued at $68,700 per ounce “now”. I say “now” because our debt burden will only grow larger, our gold holdings (IF they truly still exist) will not grow or “breed” making our stash larger with new little goldlings. My point is this, $68,700 is a credible number only assuming we do have the gold we claim to have.
Now let’s look at silver. Silver is taken out of the ground at roughly a 10-1 ratio to gold production. This number includes “by-product” silver. The current price ratio is 70-1 or thereabouts, nonsensical when you factor in the price to produce silver is higher than the market price. This situation argues for severe supply cutbacks in the future unless the price goes higher to allow for a mining profit. Silver is also a very miniscule market when looked at from a dollar standpoint. There are roughly 800 million ounces produced globally which in dollar terms is less than $15 billion. In today’s world, $15 billion is nothing! Individual companies are bought and sold for more every day.
Another aspect to silver is the “low hanging fruit” has already been found and mined. Many companies have high graded production just to stay in business. New silver deposit exploration has found very little over the last 5-10 years, current new exploration today is almost non existent because the funds from operations have turned into losses. The capital to look for new silver deposits simply does not exist.
New “uses” for silver, be they electrical, industrial, solar, medical or other seem to be popping up regularly. Demand will increase over time. And speaking of time, it is estimated that silver may become the next “extinct element” in about 20 years. Does this mean there will be no silver left on the planet? No, new silver will be found and dug up but probably not enough to satisfy the fledging demand of 100’s of years ago unless new mining technology becomes available.
What comes our way is a once in hundred’s of years currency event. Never before has the world not had a single currency backed by silver or gold. There is no place to hide from the currency derivatives/debt/currency meltdown except in the actual metals themselves, “receipts” will not do this time!
To finish, I would like to paraphrase something from the Bible. In Matthew 25, verses 14-30, the “Parable of talents” is written. It speaks of a master going on a trip and leaving three of his servants’ bags of gold to care for while he is away. To one he gave 10, another he gave two and the third servant just one bag. He did so based upon his judgment of their abilities to handle money. When the master returned, the servant who was given 10 bags, returned 20 and the servant given two bags returned four. The last servant, who dug a hole in the ground and buried his bag of gold, dug it up and returned it intact. The last servant was scorned and called lazy for doing nothing with his “talent”. Please understand in those days, “talent” was considered weight or coinage but can be looked at today as one’s talent or ability, it should not be wasted.
In my opinion, because the “moneychangers” have so rigged and fraudulently ruined the global monetary system, now is not the time to “earn interest”. Now is not the time to try to “make money”. The system is on the verge of a mathematically certain collapse where institutions and governments themselves stand to perish. Believe this or not, mathematics don’t lie. Now is the time for you to be the third servant and bury you bag of whatever you have accumulated. Get it out of the system and thus out of the way of the financial carnage coming. You will have something to “start over” with and give you a head start. As Richard Russell has said, right now is NOT about making money, it is all about not losing everything.
Will silver go to $5,000 per ounce? Who knows, we may have a completely different currency in short order, and nothing will be quoted in “dollars” anymore. All I can tell you is that when gold and silver are remonetized back into the system, their purchasing powers will be at least equal to if not many times higher than these depressed levels. In “dollar terms” they may approach infinity!
Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Please note that current on books US Treasury debt is now over $33 trillion rather than 18 when this was written and the silver to gold ratio is 85 to 1 versus 70-1 at the time of writing. Were US “held” gold (no audit has been done since 1956? Why not?) to be required to extinguish current debt, the price of gold would need to be well north of $125,000 per ounce. The silver to gold ratio held at 16-1 for hundred’s of years. Silver would be roughly $8,000 per ounce in this instance…
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