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Bill’s Commentary:
“Mark my words, this will be used to tell you after the crash “but we warned you”!”
The Fed and FDIC Wake Up Suddenly to the Threat of Derivatives, Flunking the Four Largest Derivative Banks on their Wind-Down Plans
Since the financial crash of 2008 and the Fed’s multi-trillion dollar bank bailouts that followed, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has been waving a giant red flag every quarter in its “Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities” reports. For sixteen years the OCC has been reporting that just four megabanks are responsible for more than 80 percent of the trillions of dollars in bank derivatives.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Weekend comedy!”
CDC Recommends New COVID-19 Vaccines for Nearly All Americans
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 27 recommended forthcoming COVID-19 vaccines for virtually all Americans.
“CDC recommends everyone ages 6 months and older receive an updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine to protect against the potentially serious outcomes of COVID-19 this fall and winter whether or not they have ever previously been vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine,” the agency said in a statement.
The COVID-19 vaccines now available, which are also broadly recommended, target the XBB.1.5 strain. But observational data indicate they provide short-lived protection against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Update; I posted the below commentary and chart last weekend regarding silver, it is still valid. We are a week out from this writing and things still look similar if not better as we have another week of building the base. I believe within a week to 10 days, the MACD at the bottom of the chart will form another hook, and then crossover to the upside. With all of the surrounding financial, political, and geopolitical catastrophes building, my target of $34-37 in the medium term may end up being modest?”
”Is silver bouncing exactly where it is supposed to? $29 is support from the previous highs back in April and also support from the 50 day moving average. Given a week or so, this looks like we may see another “hook” in the MACD turning upwards and crossing over. I think we could see at $34-37 on this next leg but we need to see more work done here digging off support. In any case, a very big move either up, or down is in the cards as we have spent nearly 3 weeks chopping in the $29-31 zone, not overbought nor oversold on the daily’s and coiled for a move one way or the other. Add the fundamentals where silver is in a structural deficit and a snorting bull market/major short squeeze looks likely. Stay tuned!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Erik on Socialism vs Capitalism”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“”Someone” holds the debt on these to be empty towers, the losses will be eaten by “someone”…”
Moody’s Predicts 24% Of Office Towers Will Be Vacant By 2026
A new report from Moody’s offers yet another grim outlook that the commercial real estate downturn is nowhere near the bottom. Elevated interest rates and persistent remote and hybrid working trends could result in around 24% of all office towers standing vacant within the next two years. The office tower apocalypse will result in more depressed values that will only pressure landlords.
“Combining these insights, with our more than 40 years of historic office performance data, as well as future employment projections, our model indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63- month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally,” Moody’s analysts Todd Metcalfe, Anthony Spinelli, and Thomas LaSalvia wrote in the report.
Bill’s Commentary:
“The election process certainly got much more interesting last night! I see no possible way that Joe Biden is on the ballot in November. James Howard Kunstler has an interesting take linked below. In my opinion, if anything, last night’s trainwreck upped the odds in my opinion that we actually do have an election, but not by much… The reason being, I am not sure that Joe Biden can even finish the current term, there will be (already are) calls from the left for him to step down and be replaced by another candidate. I do not believe there are any candidates out there that can whip up enough excitement or support in 130 days to get within “the margin of cheating” to be believable …with one exception, Michelle Obama. In my opinion, this debate was scheduled as the earliest debate ever, and before both conventions, to leave time for a replacement candidate. I still believe that the occurrence of an election is at best a 50/50 or slightly higher proposition. My fear is this, there has been so much crime behind the scenes that they will have to kick the table completely over, so that no “investigations” can be made. One thing I am sure of, the potential for armed conflict and WWIII rose greatly last night. Whether it be that foreign adversaries now see the US as a rudderless entity (and a greatly diminished power) or as I said, an internal kick of the table via false flag, the entire world just got more risky in the first 2 minutes of that debate. I believe markets, ALL markets, will reflect this higher risk over the next 4 months. Time will tell!”
Joe Biden Catches Cold
Maybe ninety-seconds into last night’s long-awaited debate spectacle, the consensus must have jelled among the woke-and-broken news media mavens that their champion, “Joe Biden,” was not quite killing it out there at the podium. CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash acted like witnesses at a ritual sacrifice. And afterward, the CNN post-mortem panel seemed genuinely shocked that months of playing pretend had skidded to such an ignominious finish.
Which raises a great many questions, starting with: why on earth did the Democratic Party and its media handmaidens persist in pretending month-after-month that “Joe Biden” was a fit candidate for another four-year term? Last night, he didn’t appear capable of even finishing the current term. Why did they usher him so jauntily into the nomination? And what are they going to do about that now? And what were their motives for all that pretending? “Joe Biden” circulates among scores of astute officials every day. Did they all fail to notice his incapacity? Or has the whole thing been a sham and a lie all along? Was this just the culminating hoax by the Party of Hoaxes of a long string of hoaxes against the nation going back to 2015?
Bill’s Commentary:
“This is pretty scary!”
DATA ANALYSIS: MORE BANKS AT RISK OF FAILURE AS CRE LOANS REPRICE
More than 60 of the largest banks in the country are at increased risk of failure due to their commercial real estate (CRE) exposures, according to a data analysis from a finance expert at Florida Atlantic University.
Sixty-seven banks have exposure to commercial real estate greater than 300% of their total equity, as reported in their first quarter 2024 regulatory data and shown by the U.S. Banks’ Exposure to Risk from Commercial Real Estate screener.
“This is a very serious development for our banking system as commercial real estate loans are repricing in a high interest-rate environment,” said Rebel Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in FAU’s College of Business. “With commercial properties selling at serious discounts in the current market, banks eventually are going to be forced by regulators to write down those exposures.”
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Bill is interviewed by Liberty and Finance (Also posted under Interviews)
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Bill’s Commentary:
“In case you were wondering, this is why Julian Assange was jailed.”
10 most controversial exposé by WikiLeaks founded by Julian Assange.
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Bill is interviewed at Coffee and a Mike (also posted under Interviews)
Bill’s Commentary:
“So not only is The Fed sitting on huge unrealized losses, they also have a cash operating loss since 2022? And this is the entity that issues the world’s reserve currency? At least now you know why the world has formed a competitive bloc called the “BRICS”!”
The Fed Posts Historic Operating Losses As It Pays Out 5.40 Percent Interest to Banks
According to Federal Reserve data, for the first time in its history, the Fed has been losing money on a consistent monthly basis since September 28, 2022. As of the last reporting date of June 19, 2024, those losses add up to a cumulative $176 billion. As the chart above using Fed data shows, the losses thus far in 2024 have ranged from a monthly high of $11.076 billion in February to a low of $5.674 billion in May.
These losses are separate and distinct from the unrealized losses the Fed is experiencing on the debt securities it holds on its balance sheet. It does not mark those losses to market since it intends to hold the securities to maturity and their principal is guaranteed at maturity by the U.S. government.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Price always follows volume! Are you paying attention?”
US Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Plunged In May To A New Record Low
After crashing in April, analysts expected a small rebound in pending home sales in May, but they didn’t.
That dragged the YoY change down 6.6% to a new record low…
“The market is at an interesting point with rising inventory and lower demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation in upcoming months. Inevitably, more inventory in a job-creating economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage rates descend.”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Based on this chart, which asset will have THE greatest short squeeze rallies when the financial system goes south? To put this in easy terms to understand, based on current volume levels, the shorts would need to purchase (cover) an amount equal to 6 months worth of normal daily volume. This of course does not include “normal buying” which will be anything but normal …have you ever seen sharks in bloodied water before?! I promise you, the “cover” and resulting explosion will be unlike anything you have ever seen in any asset class in ALL OF HISTORY!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Well, at least they have now given a timeline of 3 years. Do you really believe there will be no frontrunning?”
Brics Announces Plans to Completely Abandon the US Dollar
The Brics is a group of countries interested in the prevalence of international justice, while the West seeks in all ways to stop the multilateralization of the international community to prolong its hegemony.
The new development bank of the economic alliance Brics announced on Wednesday its plans to abandon completely the US dollar in the next 3 years.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“So, this qualifies as a school?”
No 8th Grader at LeBron James’ Ohio School Has Passed State Math Test Since 2019
Not a single 8th grade student at left-wing activist and basketball legend LeBron James’ I Promise School in Ohio has passed the state’s math proficiency exam since 2019, according to a review by the local Akron Beacon Journal.
“Seeing himself in the faces of Akron’s youth, he’s dedicated his time and resources to eliminating many of the barriers most inner-city students and families face. He’s rolled all of his philanthropic efforts into the I Promise School, which he considers one of the greatest achievements of his lifetime,” says the school’s website.
Bill’s Commentary:
“OF COURSE all the banks passed this test, did you think otherwise?”
As Usual All US Banks Pass the Fed’s “Stress” Test; Goldman Unexpectedly Has 2nd Ugliest Credit Card Portfolio
In the latest annual farce meant to boost confidence in the banking sector, moments ago the Fed announced that all the biggest US banks passed annual stress test with flying colors, paving the way for higher shareholder payouts as the industry awaits a watered-down version of a separate proposal for stricter capital requirements. Of course, all the banks that collapsed last March passed the “stress test” too, so there’s that.
Bill’s Commentary:
“On silver…”
Acceleration of the Silver Price Rise in the Short Term
China is the world’s factory and largely dominates the photovoltaic panels market, an industry that consumes a lot of silver. From January to May 2024, 1,663 tonnes of silver were delivered to the Shanghai markets (SGE and SFE), and analysts expect 3,992 tonnes to be delivered during this year.
While SFE stocks stood at 3,200 tonnes in January 2021, they fell to 684 tonnes on June 20, 2024.
Bill is interviewed by CapitalCosm. (also posted under Interviews)
Bill’s Commentary:
“A good one from Erik!”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Are they planning to show the debate on the Comedy Channel?”
“This Proved Our Point”: CNN Anchor Slammed Over Mic-Cut Exposing Jake Tapper Lies
In case you needed a preview of what to expect during this week’s presidential election debate – hosted by CNN – we present the following…
Just seconds after Trump 2024 National Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt began to discuss CNN’s historical bias against her candidate – most specifically that of debate moderator Jake Tapper’s history of anti-Trump lies – CNN anchor Kasie Hunt “ma’am’d” her and immediately cut her mic and ended the interview…
Bill’s Commentary:
“Further proof that government statistics are pure bullshit!”
Newest Early Jobs Revision Shows No Net Job Growth During 2023
Monthly State Jobs Estimates Are Revised Annually. Each month our office publishes the most recent state employment figures from the the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. State employment figures come from this monthly survey, which is based on a small sample of businesses in the state. As a result, once per year the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does a benchmark revision, updating the monthly CES estimates to match more reliable administrative data from states’ Unemployment Insurance programs.
Federal Researchers Now Publishing Quarterly Revisions. Although the BLS only revises the state-level CES once per year, the underlying data used to revise the CES survey is collected quarterly. Taking advantage of this asynchrony, in 2021, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia began publishing state-level “early revisions” based on the same underlying data but revised more frequently.
Bill’s Commentary:
“He should never have been arrested in the first place, and Trump should have pardoned him…”
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange strikes plea deal with the U.S.
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has entered into a plea deal with the U.S. government, bringing an end to a years-long international saga over his handling of national security secrets.
Assange is preparing to plead guilty to a single count of conspiring to obtain and disclose information related to the national defense in a U.S. federal court in Saipan, in the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. commonwealth in the Pacific, this week, according to newly filed court papers.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Your tax dollars (and government borrowing) at work!”
U.S. Airbase Authorizes Troops To Wear LGBT ‘Pride Patch’ Alongside Real Badges Of Honor
The latest example of the politicization of the military under the Biden administration (and there are many) has been revealed by Stars and Stripes. It reports that the commander of the Osan Air Force base in South Korea has authorized troops on the base to wear a “pride morale patch” on their military uniforms, in public and while on duty.
Insignia and patches on a soldier’s uniform used to serve the purpose of telling you something about the military qualifications and experience of the soldier. They now can also signal whether a soldier ascribes to the Democrat Party’s current political trends.
Bill’s Commentary:
“…AND Mike Pompeo”
Bill’s Commentary:
“This should tell you all you need to know about Mike Pence…”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Suddenly? There has been a banking problem since the turn of the century, now it’s “suddenly”?”
The Fed and FDIC Wake Up Suddenly to the Threat of Derivatives, Flunking the Four Largest Derivative Banks on their Wind-Down Plans
Since the financial crash of 2008 and the Fed’s multi-trillion dollar bank bailouts that followed, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has been waving a giant red flag every quarter in its “Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities” reports. For sixteen years the OCC has been reporting that just four megabanks are responsible for more than 80 percent of the trillions of dollars in bank derivatives.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Can you say Banana republic land?”
The National Debt Crisis Is Coming
During the Obama administration, many economists and political commentators became worried that the U.S. faced endless budget deficits that could cause higher interest rates, depress investment, and slow economic growth. Some elected officials pressed for a so-called grand bargain in 2011 between the parties that would both reduce spending and increase revenue, and a bipartisan commission was appointed to address the issue.
Although the commission failed to reach an agreement, the negative consequences that budget hawks predicted didn’t come to pass. Instead of rising, inflation rates slowed after 2011 and remained low for years. The economy entered a period of growth until the pandemic disrupted everything.
Bill’s Commentary:
“This from the CDC presented by NBC, both with stellar reputations for “truth”. Will this be SO BAD that we cannot hold an election because everyone knows that mosquitos swarm polling stations in November?”
CDC issues dengue fever alert in the U.S.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a health advisory Tuesday alerting authorities, health care providers and the public of the increased risk of dengue fever infections in the United States.
The alert comes as an unexpectedly higher number of dengue fever cases have been reported across the nation, according to the CDC.
A total of 2,241 cases have been reported so far this year in the U.S., including 1,498 cases in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, where a public health emergency was declared in March after cases exceeded historical figures. Most of the cases reported in states are travel related, according to the CDC.
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Bill’s Commentary:
”Covid …was the “cure” for the flu! After many years of 30-40 million flu cases in the US, there were only 1,700 cases of the flu for the entire year 2021. How is that possible? It is possible because they are full of pure unadulterated bullshit! In my opinion, they blew their wad with fear mongering Covid, then releasing an evil, yet clownish “vaccine”. I do not believe they will get a second chance to administer more clot shot shots as many who were fooled and took the shot now know …it was not in their best interests. Rolling out another epidemic will be hard as they screwed up the first one and left too many loose ends that are being tugged on every day now …”
The latest from Erik –
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The latest from USA Watchdog –
(Also posted under Interviews)
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Bill’s Commentary:
”Here’s a shocker!”
Historian warns America could face destruction because of controversial policy that both Biden and Trump have backed
America’s status as the world’s greatest power will end for the same reason as its predecessors – crushed by a mountain of debt that politicians find convenient to ignore, historians have warned.
And the United States’ century at the top could be coming to an end quicker than expected with countries in Asia increasingly likely to pull the plug.
Interest payments on the debt overtook spending on defense earlier this month, but it will not be force of arms that brings the country down, according to historian Professor Niall Ferguson.
Bill’s Commentary:
“This does not matter …until it matters!”
Bill’s Commentary:
”PROOF that you cannot fix stupid!”
Bill’s Commentary:
”Jim used to call this “the last man standing”…”
AS DOMINOES FALL, GOLD WILL STAND STRONGER THAN EVER
Some of the important dominoes the world will see falling are: Political, Geopolitical, Currency, Debt and Investment Assets.
The consequences will be unthinkable – Social Unrest, War, Hyperinflation, Deflationary Implosion of Assets, Debt Defaults and much more.
But when things settle down, there will also be offsetting forces such as the emergence of powerful BRICS nations often backed by commodities.
Bill’s Commentary:
”From the ministry of truth…”
EXCLUSIVE – New Docs Reveal the Brennan-Clapper-Led DHS Committee Proposed Americans Report Neighbors to the Feds
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, following its victory that resulted in the disbanding of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) “Homeland Intelligence Experts Group,” America First Legal (AFL) is releasing the first tranche of the group’s internal meeting notes, exclusively obtained from litigation. This is the first installment of #DeepStateDiaries, a multi-part series of releases including newly obtained documents.
As part 1, newly obtained documents reveal that the advisory committee that included John Brennan and James Clapper discussed ways for DHS to increase efforts to collect intelligence on Americans across the country, including attempting to “get into local communities in a non-threatening way.”
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