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Bill’s Commentary:
“”Going around” the dollar is only a slightly slower way of replacing it. Dollar settlement for global trade will diminish until obscurity. Do you understand what happens to your standard of living when the beloved dollar is no longer acceptable in many parts of the world? You will not have to wait much longer to find out …”
Is the USD Really Too Big to Fail?
Between politics (driven by self rather than public servants), markets (driven by debt rather than profits) and currencies (diluted by over-creation rather than chaperoned by a real asset), it is fair to say we live in not interesting but surreal times.
But amidst the surreal, the dollar, as many believe, is our rock, our immortal albeit often unloved constant.
The USD: Too Big to Fail?
Whatever one thinks of the dollar, we can’t deny its centrifugal force, exorbitant privilege and entirely unequaled market power (from the current SWIFT and Eurodollar systems to the derivative and petrodollar markets).
And even as broken, debased, inflated (and inflation-exporting) as the USD is, its place as a world reserve currency (with 80%+ of global FX transactions) is firm.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Now they have made Donald Trump a martyr and divided the nation even further. Tolerance from the right may no longer be possible. In my opinion, the consequences of this cannot yet be counted, but whatever you believe them to be, please multiply them many fold … Trump will no longer need to campaign for a single minute between now and the election The only way he does not become the 47th president is if some sort of false flag is used to cancel it altogether.”
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Some philosophical Erik for you”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“This is Paris?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“California leading the breakdown of society …”
Sacramento City Attorney Threatens Target it Will Face Fines for Reporting Retail Theft ‘Nuisance Calls’
The Sacramento City Attorney’s Office has issued a warning to gigantic national retailer Target that it will face fines for reporting so many retail theft incidences.
We have officially entered George Orwell’s 1984.
Think about that – Target reports retail theft to the city of Sacramento hoping for any enforcement, and the city’s attorney gets mad that there are so many “nuisance” calls.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Oops, is this systemic?”
The Fund Created to Unwind a Failing Megabank Has a Problem: There’s No Money in It
Last week the American Banker published an opinion article by Arthur E. Wilmarth, Jr., the Professor Emeritus of Law at George Washington University. Wilmarth is the man who wrote the seminal book on the continuing threat to financial stability posed by U.S. megabanks – the same ones that blew up Wall Street and the U.S. economy in 2008.
The title of Wilmarth’s article (paywall) is: “The FDIC’s resolution plan for failed megabanks is an empty promise.” The thrust of the article is this: the Dodd-Frank Act was passed by Congress and signed into law in 2010 – 14 years ago. One of its primary goals was to prevent taxpayers from having to rescue megabanks, as occurred in 2008.
Read more here…https://wallstreetonparade.com/2024/07/the-fund-created-to-unwind-a-failing-megabank-has-a-problem-theres-no-money-in-it/
Bill is interviewed by Finance and Precious Metals (Also posted under Interviews)
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Bill’s Commentary:
“The word to describe this can only be “fitting”! Sotomayor got to see exactly what results from “woke” government policy. She might not even make the connection as she was saved from disaster via government spending to protect her …but what about us normal schmucks?”
Sonia Sotomayor saved from danger: Supreme Court Justice’s bodyguard shoots gun-wielding suspect who tried to steal his car outside her DC home
A teenage suspect was shot by US Marshals on Friday after allegedly attempting to carjack Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s federal bodyguards outside her home, DailyMail.com can exclusively reveal.
Metropolitan Police Department confirmed it was investigating a shooting that took place in the Northwest Washington, DC. where two marshals were on-duty working ‘a protective detail’ in the early hours of July 5.
A Deputy US Marshal was sitting in his car outside the top judge’s condominium at 1:15am when 18-year-old Kentrell Flowers approached, pointed a handgun at him, and tried to steal his vehicle, according to a police report obtained by DailyMail.com.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Grizzly checks in with some wisdom for us all!”
I was driving up the creek today and was daydreaming about the stage hold ups that this part of WY is well known for. The gold miners of Deadwood had to deliver their earnings to the bank in Cheyenne down this valley road.
> I was thinking of the lone robbers, small gangs or larger collaborations that would qualify for RICO prosecution nowadays (selectively enforced albeit) that would force the stage to stop, kill the teamsters and make off with the gold.
> These days we could very easily be looking at the same threats the old stage drivers faced. As this Ponzi financial scheme continues to unravel before our eyes, there will come a day, sooner or later, where men intent on taking the gains earned from other’s hard work will be looking at us and our earnings. I try to keep these scribblings confined to preparedness subjects, but I think this qualifies.
> As stated, sooner or later collapse is coming and we who are prepared will undoubtedly be forced to protect our preparations and those in our care.
> So – in terms of preparedness, take time as soon as possible to review your security. Look at the avenues of approach. Look at this through the eyes of defending your castle or your fort. Where can you see well (OP – Observation Post in military jargon). Can you see the threat coming from a distance to bide more time? Can you communicate to your castle that a threat is coming? How will you do this? Can you then slow down the the threat without direct action? Avoid DA as much as possible at this stage until the threat is in a well prepared and pre-planned kill zone. Heavy fences, ditches, rubble?
> The goal here is to see the threat from as far a away as possible; communicate this threat, slow down and encumber the threat before the threat even knows they are had and funnel them to a vulnerable place without them realizing it.
> If these efforts don’t thwart their intentions, then be prepared to unleash hell on your threat. Violence of action, shock and awe – you pick the term but whatever term, have the firepower to repel the threat. Neutralize the threat and discourage the surviving marauders to look elsewhere for someone else’s hardworking gains.
> Don’t waste time with this. God only knows how much time there is before things like this are upon us.
> Don’t be scared. Be prepared. Grizzly
Bill’s Commentary:
“The Saudis took the position they did …for the exact same reasons the “BRICS” were formed…!”
Saudis Threatened To Sell European Bonds If Russian Assets Were Confiscated
In a fascinating geopolitical development, Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia privately hinted earlier this year it would sell some (or all) of its European debt holdings if the G-7 confiscated Russia’s frozen assets.
As a reminder, we noted in May the European Union had approved a US-backed plan to use profits and interest generated from Russian assets to help arm Ukraine; however that was a sharp reversal from the previously proposed plan – one which was heavily promoted by Zelensky and Ukraine – to confiscate some $300 billion in Russian assets. Many were wondering what prompted the reversal.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“You do understand that NATO is toast?”
NATO Has to Change. Here’s How.
What would Ike say now?
Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, NATO’s first supreme allied commander Europe, felt strongly that his mission was to get Europeans “back on their military feet” — not for American troops to become the permanent bodyguard for Brussels and Berlin.
“If in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States,” he wrote of NATO in 1951, “then this whole project will have failed.”
Our pal Grizzly checks in –
“Bill, Check this out?
I’m claiming an uneducated pig farmer in Iowa is much more intelligent than the supposed big wigs of investment. Wonder if they ride a short bus to the closings of deals like this?”
Who Made or Lost What between Brookfield, Starwood, MetLife? An Office CRE Deal of the Low-Interest-Rate Era Gets Shredded in Foreclosure
We have been discussing here for a while how the massive losses in commercial real estate, particularly in the office sector, have been spread far and wide, spread over equity and debt, landlords and lenders. And those lenders are spread across several big investor classes globally, and they hold the majority of the debt, not banks, thankfully (in multifamily CRE, US government entities hold the majority of the debt). And those losses originated from the crazy deal-making, reckless lending, and ridiculous valuations during the era of ultra-low interest rates. So this here is a deal that went kaputt where the debt was held by a life insurer.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Do you really own your house or condo if an HOA can do this …not to mention skyrocketing taxes?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“From the “elite” royal highness or excellency, or whatever he’d like to be called The Pope! Maybe he should read the US Constitution and Bill of Rights to understand God given rights versus elite assholes trying to play god…?”
Pope decries populists, warns democracy is in bad health
Pope Francis denounced populist politics and what he called “the dross of ideology” on Sunday, warning that democracy was not in good shape in many parts of the world.
The 87-year-old pope was in the northeastern city of Trieste for a flying visit, his fourth trip within Italy in just over two months as he prepares for a 12-day journey across Asia in September, the longest of his papacy.
Speaking at an annual Roman Catholic convention on social affairs, Francis said many people felt excluded from democracy, with the poor and the weak left to fend for themselves.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Don’t tell me, they had water leaks all over the country and then had to “secretly” count ballots?”
SHOCK French Exit Poll Shows Far Left Bloc Winning; Right-Wing National Rally Takes Third.
The far-left New Popular Front (NPF), a leftist coalition, appears to have emerged victorious in the second round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, with the right wing National Rally (RN) securing third place, initial exit polls have claimed.
Preliminary results indicate that the NPF has gained between 170 to 190 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble bloc is anticipated to take 150 to 170 seats, placing it in the second position. The RN is expected to win between 135 to 155 seats.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Why does anyone act surprised? The guy never campaigned in 2020 yet got more votes than any president in US history. He was a bumbler back then and apparently has slid further as he got older …but people are shocked?”
Western Elites Have a Reality Problem
Joe Biden’s debate performance is not, and should not be seen as, a personal failure, but as another example of the systemic institutional breakdown that drives the populist revolt across the globe.
By vigorously denying the president’s obvious decline, liberals in the legacy media tried to make us believe something that obviously was untrue. The people who claim to want to protect Americans from disinformation and American institutions from being destroyed actively worked in direct opposition to the truth and, in doing so, undermined faith in one of the nation’s most iconic institutions — the office of the president of the United States.
Most people engage with reality pragmatically, not politically. We focus on solving the challenges of day-to-day life functionally, not as an ideological construct. We don’t make believe, we make do. We exist in a real world filled with actual challenges to be overcome, and we use our talents and willpower to make our lives better and achieve our personal dreams.
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The latest from USA Watchdog –
Bill’s Commentary:
“Your tax dollars at work again!”
House Judiciary: Taxpayers funding border crisis, services to illegal foreign nationals
(The Center Square) – Taxpayers are not only funding the border crisis, but they are also paying for numerous free services illegal foreign nationals receive, according to a new report published by the House Judiciary Committee and its Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement.
The committee blames the Biden administration in its new report, “Chauffeur at the Border, Concierge in the Interior: How the Biden Administration Rewards Illegal Aliens on the Taxpayers’ Dime” for costs to U.S. taxpayers.
It also notes that Congress, including Republicans, voted to fund the programs it identified as wasting taxpayer money and facilitating the border crisis when Congress passed an omnibus appropriations bill in March that President Joe Biden signed into law.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Erik outlines a situation with where nearly all endings are bad endings…”
The latest from Erik –
Bill’s Commentary:
“A shocker? I thought this was a given in today’s world?”
‘Key to Revolving Door’: FDA Tells Staff Who Leave for Pharma Jobs They Can Work ‘Behind the Scenes’ to Influence Agency
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) informs departing workers that they can still influence the agency’s decision-making after leaving their position to work for the pharmaceutical industry, a new investigation by The BMJ revealed.
According to an internal email obtained by The BMJ, the FDA told departing staffer Doran Fink, M.D., Ph.D. — who had reviewed COVID-19 vaccines while working at the FDA and who had accepted a job at Moderna — that although U.S. law prohibits some forms of lobbying contact between former FDA workers who leave to join the private sector, they “do not prohibit the former employee from other activities, including working ‘behind the scenes.’”
Peter Doshi, Ph.D., who wrote The BMJ’s July 1 report, told The Defender he was surprised to see “just how proactive FDA is at informing departing employees of their ability to work behind the scenes post-FDA.”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Thought provoking on the 4th of July”
Twilight’s Last Gleaming
When a presidential debate devolves into an argument over golf scores and afterward the public argues about the candidates’ mental acuity or personal honesty, when the question for voters is who is the sharper debater rather than who would be more faithful to the Constitution, when both major party candidates support mass surveillance, undeclared foreign wars and borrowing trillions of dollars a year to fund a bloated government, nearly all of which is nowhere countenanced by the Constitution, we can safely conclude that personal liberty in our once free society has been radically diminished and is in the twilight of its existence.
Bill’s Commentary:
“This will be a housing crash for the ages!”
What’s the Cost of Mortgage-Rate Buydowns and Other Incentives to Homebuilders? Lennar Discloses the Numbers
When mortgage rates rose to 6% and then 7%, sales of existing homes plunged by close to 40% from 2021 and by over 30% from 2019 because sellers refused to cut their prices enough to make 7% mortgages work, and buyers lost interest. Commercial real estate has been repricing properties, and the haircuts are massive. But home sellers are not in the mood. They’re going to wait this out or whatever. So sales have plunged even as active listings and supply have risen to the highest in years.
Homebuilders, however, have to build and sell houses regardless of how high mortgage rates are, that’s their business, they cannot wait out anything. So they have gone on an aggressive program of buying down mortgage rates, even for the entire term of the mortgage (“permanent”), and of throwing in other incentives, such as free upgrades and closing-cost pickups. And sales have held up.
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