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Bill’s Commentary:
“Hopefully President Trump misspoke when he said 800,000 Russian casualties. No one is going to blow smoke up Vladimir Putin’s ass, this would be a bad place to begin negotiations from, no?”
Russian Casualties and the Russian Economy — A Memo for President Donald Trump
Read on blog or Reader 
Sonar21Russian casualties and the Russian Economy — A Memo for President Donald TrumpBy Larry C. Johnson on 23 January 2025
Mr. President, I believe that the CIA is providing you inaccurate, false intelligence about Russia’s casualties and the condition of its economy. If you hope to realize your goal of opening negotiations with President Vladimir Putin to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, you must be equipped with the best information available.You have been briefed that Russia has suffered devastating losses — as many as 800,000 casualties — and that Russia’s economy is weak and fragile. Data from open sources paint a diametrically opposite picture.One of the best open sources for information about Russian casualties is Mediazona:Mediazona (Russian: Медиазона) is a Russian independent media outlet focused on Anti-Putinist opposition that was founded by Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, who are also co-founders of the protest group and band Pussy Riot. The outlet’s editor-in-chief is Russian political journalist Sergey Smirnov.Mediazona is an independent organization that is ideologically opposed to Vladimir Putin. It is the antithesis of a Russian propaganda outlet. Mediazona employs a multi-faceted methodology to track Russian casualties in the Ukraine war, which includes:Open-source intelligence gathering: They monitor publicly available information from news agencies, social media platforms, official military reports, and local residents’ groups.Collaboration: Mediazona works closely with the BBC Russian Service to track and verify casualty reports.Comprehensive database: They maintain a regularly updated casualty list, which currently contains over 44,600 names of Russian soldiers killed in action.Probate Registry analysis: Mediazona combines their casualty list with data from the Probate Registry database to estimate the true mortality rate among Russian men.Statistical modeling: They use a method that accounts for all excess male mortality up to age 50, considering factors such as social composition, delays in notary consultations, and death registration delays.Cross-referencing: The team verifies information by cross-checking multiple sources and databases.Volunteer network: A team of volunteers assists in data collection and verification.Continuous updating: The database is regularly updated to reflect the most current information available.According to Mediazona’s latest data, there are 88,726 confirmed Russian combat deaths since February 2022. Mediazona estimates, using probate registry data, that the number may be as high as 120,000. This is a far cry from the numbers claimed by Ukrainian intelligence, which forms the basis of CIA estimates.It is essential that you understand that Russia views this war as vital to its continued existence. Russia is not fighting to reconstitute the Soviet Empire. It sees Ukraine as a Western-proxy being used to attack Russia with US and NATO supplied weapons and intelligence, with the ultimate goal of destroying the current government. Accordingly, the only satisfactory outcome for Russia is to end this threat. President Putin is willing to accept a negotiated settlement provided that Ukraine is stripped of its capacity to launch future attacks on Russia and that NATO ends any consideration of making Ukraine a member of NATO.According to the latest IMF projections, Russia’s economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, a slight increase from their previous forecast of 1.3%. This represents a slowdown from the estimated 3.8% growth in 2024. The IMF attributes this slowdown to several factors:Transition from a “war economy”: Russia’s economy has been running hot, fueled by substantial public spending on the war effort.High inflation: The IMF reports inflation in Russia at 8.3% in 2024, with sequential inflation even higher at above 9%.Monetary tightening: In response to high inflation, the Central Bank of Russia has raised interest rates to 21%, which is expected to weigh down economic activity.The IMF’s forecast for Russia in 2025 is lower than the Russian Economic Development Ministry’s baseline forecast of 2.5% growth. However, it falls within the Central Bank of Russia’s current forecast range of 0.5-1.5%.It’s worth noting that some Russian officials, including Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, have criticized the IMF’s forecasts as overly pessimistic, arguing that they don’t account for measures taken by Russian authorities to support the economy.Here is the critical point: Despite the projected slowdown, the IMF’s forecast suggests that Russia’s economy continues to show resilience in the face of Western sanctions, largely due to factors such as robust oil and commodity exports to countries like India and China, and the expansion of its military-industrial complex.The Russian government view of its economy remains upbeat, with officials highlighting strong growth figures and resilience in the face of Western sanctions. The Russian government points to several key indicators to support this optimistic view:GDP growth: The economy grew by 3.6% in 2023 and is expected to grow by around 4% in 2024, making Russia one of the fastest-growing major economies13.Low unemployment: The unemployment rate dropped to 2.6% in 2024, a historically low level14.Rising global economic status: According to the World Bank, Russia has overtaken Germany and Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world when measured by purchasing power parity1.Increased investment: Fixed capital investment grew by 9.8% in 2023 and 14.5% in the first quarter of 20241.Trade surplus: Russia enjoyed a surplus of $50.2 billion in 2023 and $40.6 billion in the first half of 20241.President Vladimir Putin uses these economic indicators to argue that Western sanctions have been ineffective and to showcase Russia’s economic model to partners in Asia and Africa.If you consider Russia’s perspective on the war in terms of casualties and the economy, Vladimir Putin is under no pressure to reach a negotiated settlement that does not address Russia’s strategic concerns that it will no longer face a military threat from NATO. If you fail to understand this and adjust your strategy to make a deal, your efforts to negotiate an end to war in Ukraine will not succeed.Bill’s Commentary:
“AMEN!”
DEFENDING WOMEN FROM GENDER IDEOLOGY EXTREMISM AND RESTORING BIOLOGICAL TRUTH TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including section 7301 of title 5, United States Code, it is hereby ordered:
Section 1. Purpose. Across the country, ideologues who deny the biological reality of sex have increasingly used legal and other socially coercive means to permit men to self-identify as women and gain access to intimate single-sex spaces and activities designed for women, from women’s domestic abuse shelters to women’s workplace showers. This is wrong. Efforts to eradicate the biological reality of sex fundamentally attack women by depriving them of their dignity, safety, and well-being. The erasure of sex in language and policy has a corrosive impact not just on women but on the validity of the entire American system. Basing Federal policy on truth is critical to scientific inquiry, public safety, morale, and trust in government itself.
Bill’s Commentary:
“So, how much do you believe your property is worth?”
U.S. Homes Sales in 2024 Fell to Lowest Level in Nearly 30 Years
U.S. existing-home sales fell in 2024 to the lowest level since 1995, the second straight year of anemic sales due to stubbornly high mortgage rates.
High costs related to homeownership sapped sales again. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered between 6% and 8% since late 2022, making it prohibitively expensive for many Americans to buy homes at current prices, which hit record highs last year. Rising home insurance and property tax costs are also adding to homeowners’ expenses.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Mountain DEW?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“Maybe we will soon get to see whether “preemptive” pardons are Constitutional?”
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Bill’s Commentary:
“If this is true, it is brilliance!”
https://twitter.com/In2ThinAir/status/1882200675083268122
Bill’s Commentary:
“17 times?”
Bill’s Commentary:
“All I can say is this; EMBARRASSING!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“”No more gain of function except for the AI generated MRNA shots?
Trump Order Seeks to Stop Virus Research That Critics Have Linked to Covid
The Trump administration is preparing an executive order that would halt federal funding, at least temporarily, for a risky and controversial kind of research into viruses that makes the pathogens more dangerous or contagious.
The goal of the order would be to stop scientists with U.S. funding from conducting “gain-of-function” research on viruses that could endanger human health, people familiar with the plans said.
Some viruses, such as the H5N1 bird-flu pathogen, might be exempt from the order, one of the people said.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Shredding leftards to their face, a pretty funny 5 minutes!”
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Gold is breaking out higher in ALL currencies.”
The Next Phase of Gold’s Bull Market Has Just Begun
Following more than two months of stagnation after the U.S. presidential election, gold is now breaking out decisively, signaling its readiness to resume its rally toward $3,000 and beyond. While this recent pause has tested the patience of many investors, I’ve consistently maintained that it was a healthy consolidation phase, paving the way for even greater gains. Now, as I’ll demonstrate with numerous charts, gold is breaking out of its post-election trading range across nearly every major currency, reaffirming its bullish momentum.
In my view, the most important gold chart to monitor is the COMEX gold futures chart, priced in U.S. dollars. Over the past few months, a triangle pattern has taken shape—a formation that is typically a continuation pattern, suggesting the uptrend preceding it is likely to persist. Today, gold broke out of this triangle, an encouraging development. Notably, as I recently explained, a similar triangle formed in late 2007, and its breakout signaled substantial gains in the ensuing months.
Bill’s Commentary:
“I am most concerned with something not mentioned by Erik… going to jail for criticizing anything Israel does. If this “law” or Executive Order comes forth, it will be the tell…
And by the way, if we were ever to get to a true “golden age,” it would mean the currency would have blown up and the only road to acceptance would be currency backed by gold. Pain IS coming, one cannot erase 60 years of perverse spending.”
The latest from Erik –
Bill’s Commentary:
“Good timing!”
On the eve of Trump, Iran and Russia launch historical deal
Timing is everything in geopolitics. This past Friday in Moscow, only three days before the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in Washington, top BRICS member leaders Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, detailed in 47 articles, twice as many as in the recent Russian–North Korean deal.
This strategic partnership is now set in stone just as the – unpayable – humongous debt of the US government reaches an unprecedented $36.1 trillion, equivalent to $106.4k per American, and just as the US share of the global economy falls below 15 percent for the first time, based on World Bank/IMF figures.
In sharp contrast, the Russia–Iran strategic partnership aims to solidify even more the interlocking drive of crucial multilateral organizations driven to organize the new multimodal world: BRICS+, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
Bill’s latest interview (Also posted under Interviews)
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Ya think?”
Walgreens says locking up products to prevent shoplifting hurts salesWalgreens says locking up products to prevent shoplifting hurts sales
Locking up store merchandise can deter shoplifters and paying customers alike, according to Walgreens.
The pharmacy chain’s CEO Tim Wentworth said in Walgreens Boots Alliance’s first-quarter earnings call Tuesday that “When you lock things up … you don’t sell as many of them. We’ve kind of proven that pretty conclusively.”
Keeping retail products under lock and key is a maneuver designed to thwart rising retail theft. But it also irks — and turns away — would-be paying customers who don’t have the patience to wait for a retail clerk to retrieve goods they wish to buy.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Hey, at least they gave the guy one full day!”
In Her Last Official Act, Yellen Warns US Will Hit Debt Ceiling One Day After Trump Inauguration
Back in the last week of December, when the stock market was desperately trying to reverse the slump of the Santa rally which prevented stocks from closing 2024 at an all time high, we warned that a bigger threat than a modest 1% market drawdown was looming: the countdown to the next debt ceiling crisis. We quoted Democratic operative – and the only US government official who has personally overseen total debt increase by a staggering $15 trillion under her watch at both the Fed and Treasury – Janet Yellen…
Bill’s Commentary:
“I personally lived through a wildfire in 2011, we lost everything… including all the trees. Why are trees not burning in current fires? Very suspicious!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“And #12 is what, just sit down and watch?”
11 Things to Do on Inauguration Day That Are Great for Your Mental Health
On Monday, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. For some, it’s a highly anticipated day of celebration. Others have been dreading it—and would happily finagle a deal with the universe to skip to some other day four years down the road instead.
Why so much distress after months of processing the outcome of this divisive election? Many people are probably catastrophizing, experts say, a cognitive distortion that involves fixating on the worst possible outcome and believing it’s bound to happen. The thinking goes like this: “‘Oh my God, if everything is going to have to be that way, and follow that thread, then we’re all going to die,’” says Emiliana Simon-Thomas, science director at the University of California at Berkeley’s Greater Good Science Center.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
Bill’s Commentary:
“Some Erik for the weekend”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“So, these migrants now must show ID? I thought “IDs” were racist? At least that is what we are told when it comes to the voting booth…”
Dem Massachusetts governor now wants to limit illegals in crime-ridden migrant shelters
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey is hardening her approach to the state’s migrant crisis in the face of mounting safety concerns and just days before President-elect Trump is sworn into office.
Healey, a Democrat, is proposing drastic changes to how the state houses migrants by proposing that all families staying in emergency shelters be in the country legally, with rare exceptions. The move would effectively prevent new migrants from staying in state shelters.
The change, which comes after a review of the state’s right-to-shelter law, would see all shelter applicants be required to show that they are either a U.S. citizen, a lawful permanent resident or are here “under the color of law.” Exceptions are made for households that include children who are U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents.
Bill’s Commentary:
“Just like every other year, if this $1.9 trillion was not borrowed, and then spent, we would have recorded negative growth…”
US debt ‘swells’ as deficit hits $1.9T this year, Congress’ budget office predicts
The federal government will spill $1.9 trillion in red ink this year as U.S. spending continues to eclipse cash flowing in from taxes, Capitol Hill’s nonpartisan budget scorekeeper predicted Friday.
Over the next decade, the U.S. national debt — already more than $36 trillion — will break multiple records as it “swells” to 118 percent of the nation’s economic output by 2035, the Congressional Budget Office estimated in its yearly “baseline” projections. Lawmakers use this information as a measure to craft the bills they aim to pass.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“The 10 year Treasury has risen 1 full percentage point since the Fed began cutting rates 1 full percentage point. This has not happened before and suggests the Fed is in the process of losing control of the yield curve. If the Treasury rig is up, so will life as we knew it…”
Report: Mortgage Rates Surpass 7% For First Time Since May
According to a new report, mortgage rates increased this week, going above 7% ━ adding more pressure to the housing market.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released on Thursday, showed that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 7.04%, which is up from last week’s 6.93%. The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.60% a year ago.
The latest jump comes after 10-year Treasury yields, which mirror mortgage rates, rose faster. New economic data released this week pointed to an increase in inflation and more job openings, which complicates the Fed’s rate-cutting path.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“This type of bullshit had better stop in 5 days… what a travesty!”
Dozens kicked out of WNC hotels despite FEMA Jan. 25 extension
Less than a day after the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) promised Hurricane Helene victims that they could stay in hotels until Jan. 25, troubling reports came from North Carolina Republican US Sens. Ted Budd and Thom Tillis on X stating that people were being kicked out of their hotel rooms on Tuesday.
“My office is hearing from dozens in WNC who have been kicked out of their hotels tonight, despite FEMA’s announcement yesterday that they were extending Transitional Sheltering Assistance through January 25,” Budd’s post read. “This is unacceptable. This needs to be fixed TONIGHT.”
The latest from USA Watchdog –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Dirty Harry on “DEI””
https://twitter.com/CubanMofo_/status/1878433805540704708
Bill’s Commentary:
“Our pal Wolfgang checks in:”
Bill,
Now you can attack and kill anything you want. The onus is on yourself.
Prior to today, drones were automatically blocked from entering sensitive areas.
"In these zones, in-app alerts will notify operators flying near FAA designated controlled airspace, placing control back in the hands of the drone operators, in line with regulatory principles of the operator bearing final responsibility."
What a shit show!
Wolfgang Chinese Drone Firm DJI Eliminates Automatic No-Fly Zones One Week Before Trump's Inauguration DJI, the world's largest civilian drone manufacturer and a Chinese-owned company, has reportedly announced it will replace its geofencing system with official Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data for all flight operations in the US. The changes, which took effect on Monday, come just one week before President Trump's inauguration in Washington, D.C, as well as concerns about drones across US cities and hovering near US military installations. Read more here...
Bill’s Commentary:
“As it should be!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“We will know the answer very shortly!”
The latest from Erik –
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Bill’s Commentary:
“Pastor Stanley checks in with some humor. The US Treasury can purchase Bitcoin with either dollars or alleged gold held in Ft. Knox, West Point etc. The problem here is that no audit has been performed since the 1950’s. Now I ask you this; if the government has lied to all of us, all of the time and about EVERYTHING, why would gold holdings be the ONLY thing they tell the truth about?
Which leaves us with the Bitcoin being purchased in “dollars,” either printed or created by credit. Either way it does not matter. Neither has any real value whatsoever. Paying for something real with “nothing” is a cool deal but here it is an even swap, nothing for nothing. The song should have been “currency for nothing,” but that doesn’t sound as cool…”
Money for Nothing- The Ill-Conceived Notion ThatBitcoin Will Shore UP the Failing US Dollar
Forbes reported this week that ‘Nation States Turn to Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset’ claiming that …’bitcoin is no longer just a niche investment but a geopolitical asset’…
Of course we know that President-elect Trump made headlines last summer when he attended the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, TN.:
…’In his keynote address at a bitcoinconference in Nashville, Tennessee, the Republican presidential nominee promised to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet” and create a bitcoin “strategic reserve” using the currency that the government currently holds.’…(AP News)
President Trump is acting ‘as if’ Bitcoin is a commodity that can underpin the economy of a nation. And other nations are beginning to follow suit:
Bill’s Commentary:
“Welcome to the SHORT SQUEEZE!!!”
https://x.com/profitsplusid/status/1877721164665282574
Bill’s Commentary:
“Sick people!!!”
They Really Do Want To Reduce The Population – 47 Shocking Population Control Quotes From The Global Elite That Will Make You Want To Lose Your Lunch
There is a clear consensus among the global elite that overpopulation is the primary cause of the most important problems that our world is facing today. Many of them are completely convinced that humans are literally a “plague” upon the Earth and that extreme measures are required to prevent us from destroying the entire planet. To the elite, everything from global warming to our growing economic problems can be directly traced back to a lack of population control. They warn that if nothing is done about our exploding population, humanity will be facing a future full of poverty, war and suffering on a filthy, desolate planet. They complain that it “costs too much” to keep elderly patients that are terminally ill alive, and they eagerly promote “family planning” in developing nations as a way to combat population growth. Of course just about anything that reduces the human population in any way is a positive thing for those that believe in this philosophy. This very twisted philosophy is being promoted in our movies, in our television shows, in our music, in countless books, on many of our most prominent websites, and it is being taught at top colleges and universities all over the world. The people that are promoting this philosophy have very, very deep pockets, and they are actually convinced that they are helping to “save the world” by controlling the growth of the human population. In fact, many of them truly believe that they are engaged in a “life or death” struggle for the fate of the planet.
Bill’s Commentary:
“UH OH!”
EU Has Just Lost Donbass Lithium Mine Meant to Power Bloc’s ‘Green’ Ambitions
The Russian MoD released footage Saturday showing Russian troops raising the flag over the DPR town of Shevchenko after a series of hard-fought battles. The strategic town’s liberation is devastating news for European industrialists looking for an easy euro in post-2014 coup Ukraine. Here’s why.
The Shevchenko Lithium Ore Field is laden with an estimated 13.8 million tons of lithium ores with a pure lithium oxide content of up to 207,000 tons, according to a 2018 Ukrainian State Geology and Subsoil Service study.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
Bill’s Commentary:
“The man cannot define a “woman,” yet you expect him to protect you from something very real?”
https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1878275400037523956
Bill’s Commentary:
“For those who take their finances seriously? Imagine having to research and make a choice between “peanut squirrel” and fartcoin?”
Peanut the Squirrel Meme Coin Surges 20% After Coinbase Listing, Reaches $1.34 Billion Market Cap
Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), a meme coin based on the viral squirrel mascot, has gained significant attention after Coinbase announced it would add the token to its listing roadmap. Following this announcement, PNUT’s price surged by 20%, pushing its market cap to $1.34 billion. Within 24 hours, its trading volume reached $1.5 billion, and the price rose to $1.35. This surge was particularly notable because the coin had been struggling to maintain momentum since its peak in November 2023, when it hit an all-time high of $2.44.
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Bill’s Commentary:
“I often post on “The Great Taking” because it is very real and not a speculation at all. The laws are already in place to take your assets from you. They began implementing these laws worldwide back in 2014. When the credit bubble bursts, “everyone will lose everything” is not an outlandish statement.”
How To Survive “The Great Taking” In 2025
David Webb, a former hedge fund manager, and Wall Street insider, has blown the lid off a diabolical plan more than 50 years in the making in a shocking new book.
He calls it The Great Taking.
I consider it an urgent must-read (available for free here).
Here’s the synopsis (emphasis mine):
It is about the taking of collateral (all of it), the end game of the current globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle.
This scheme is being executed by long-planned, intelligent design, the audacity and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass.
The latest from USA Watchdog –
The latest from Erik –
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