Bill’s Commentary:
“Hotel California at its finest!”
Bill,
My Oh My.
Look at all the teetering funds.
Shades of 2007 credit default swaps.
All these funds gating investors. They're like Venus fly traps...easy to get in, but you can't get out.
This smells like a Black Swan event with trillions in bailouts coming.
Can you feel it? The smell of inflation in the morning? "Smells like victory" (RIP Robert Duval)
People are constantly talking about inflation in terms of Cost Push, Demand Pull, Phillips Curve, blah blah blah.
These are only explanations. The root cause is rarely, if ever, addressed.
That is money printing.
I personally believe that without monetary expansion, you'll never get inflation.
You could get huge recessions (which correct higher prices). But not inflation.
How soon we forget Milton Friedman:
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”
So hold onto your gold.
Wolfgang
Apollo Private Credit Fund Is Latest To Gate Investors As KKR Fund Gets Junked By Moody’s
Amid the ongoing fracturing of the private credit industry, which after enjoying years of stable, levered growth (and when it ran out of institutional greater fools, it aimed lower, toward HNWs and retail) finally hit a brick wall thanks to the Claude-inspired SaaSpocalypse, which has led to a historic surge in redemption requests across the biggest (and certainly smallest) names in the industry, last week we said that debt funds managed by powerhouse firms including Blackstone, BlackRock, Cliffwater, Morgan Stanley and Monroe Capital have agreed to honor only 70% of the $10.1bn of redemption requests they have faced, according to FT calculations, as fund after fund is gating investors.
Bill’s Commentary:
“I have no way to verify if this story is 100% accurate; what I can say is, they do not want people to understand how money is created or what “money” really is. Whether you see it or not, that strategy has worked… and here we are!”
Bill’s Commentary:
“2008 redux…”
Moody’s cuts rating on private credit fund run by KKR and Future Standard to junk as bad loans grow
Moody’s Ratings on Monday downgraded a private credit fund run by KKR and Future Standard to junk amid rising bad loans and a string of weak earnings.
The ratings firm lowered the debt ratings of FS KKR Capital Corp by one notch to Ba1 from Baa3 — pushing it into “junk” territory — saying that the fund’s underlying asset quality had worsened more than its peers.
Non-accrual loans, meaning loans that borrowers have stopped making payments on, rose to 5.5% of total investments at the end of 2025, one of the highest rates among rated business development companies, according to the report.
Bill’s Commentary:
“You can ask 100 people if the US is broke and 95 will say “of course they are but it doesn’t matter.” Well, it may not matter today, tomorrow, or a year from now… but trust me, it will matter!”
The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it
The U.S. government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence. The numbers: $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30, 2025.
Importantly, the $47.78 trillion in reported liabilities does not include the unfunded obligations of social insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare — those are disclosed separately in the off-balance-sheet Statement of Social Insurance (SOSI).
BillHolter.com 