BillHolter.com

Bill’s Commentary:

“”Someone” holds the debt on these to be empty towers, the losses will be eaten by “someone”…”

Moody’s Predicts 24% Of Office Towers Will Be Vacant By 2026

A new report from Moody’s offers yet another grim outlook that the commercial real estate downturn is nowhere near the bottom. Elevated interest rates and persistent remote and hybrid working trends could result in around 24% of all office towers standing vacant within the next two years. The office tower apocalypse will result in more depressed values that will only pressure landlords. 

“Combining these insights, with our more than 40 years of historic office performance data, as well as future employment projections, our model indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63- month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally,” Moody’s analysts Todd Metcalfe, Anthony Spinelli, and Thomas LaSalvia wrote in the report.

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“The election process certainly got much more interesting last night! I see no possible way that Joe Biden is on the ballot in November. James Howard Kunstler has an interesting take linked below. In my opinion, if anything, last night’s trainwreck upped the odds in my opinion that we actually do have an election, but not by much… The reason being, I am not sure that Joe Biden can even finish the current term, there will be (already are) calls from the left for him to step down and be replaced by another candidate. I do not believe there are any candidates out there that can whip up enough excitement or support in 130 days to get within “the margin of cheating” to be believable …with one exception, Michelle Obama. In my opinion, this debate was scheduled as the earliest debate ever, and before both conventions, to leave time for a replacement candidate. I still believe that the occurrence of an election is at best a 50/50 or slightly higher proposition. My fear is this, there has been so much crime behind the scenes that they will have to kick the table completely over, so that no “investigations” can be made. One thing I am sure of, the potential for armed conflict and WWIII rose greatly last night. Whether it be that foreign adversaries now see the US as a rudderless entity (and a greatly diminished power) or as I said, an internal kick of the table via false flag, the entire world just got more risky in the first 2 minutes of that debate. I believe markets, ALL markets, will reflect this higher risk over the next 4 months. Time will tell!”

Joe Biden Catches Cold

  Maybe ninety-seconds into last night’s long-awaited debate spectacle, the consensus must have jelled among the woke-and-broken news media mavens that their champion, “Joe Biden,” was not quite killing it out there at the podium. CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash acted like witnesses at a ritual sacrifice. And afterward, the CNN post-mortem panel seemed genuinely shocked that months of playing pretend had skidded to such an ignominious finish.

       Which raises a great many questions, starting with: why on earth did the Democratic Party and its media handmaidens persist in pretending month-after-month that “Joe Biden” was a fit candidate for another four-year term?  Last night, he didn’t appear capable of even finishing the current term. Why did they usher him so jauntily into the nomination? And what are they going to do about that now? And what were their motives for all that pretending? “Joe Biden” circulates among scores of astute officials every day. Did they all fail to notice his incapacity? Or has the whole thing been a sham and a lie all along? Was this just the culminating hoax by the Party of Hoaxes of a long string of hoaxes against the nation going back to 2015?

Read more here…

Bill’s Commentary:

“This is pretty scary!”

DATA ANALYSIS: MORE BANKS AT RISK OF FAILURE AS CRE LOANS REPRICE

More than 60 of the largest banks in the country are at increased risk of failure due to their commercial real estate (CRE) exposures, according to a data analysis from a finance expert at Florida Atlantic University.

Sixty-seven banks have exposure to commercial real estate greater than 300% of their total equity, as reported in their first quarter 2024 regulatory data and shown by the U.S. Banks’ Exposure to Risk from Commercial Real Estate screener.

“This is a very serious development for our banking system as commercial real estate loans are repricing in a high interest-rate environment,” said Rebel Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in FAU’s College of Business. “With commercial properties selling at serious discounts in the current market, banks eventually are going to be forced by regulators to write down those exposures.”

Read more here…